United States

Guarded
country·USA·Score 35.5→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
43
DIPDiplomatic
15
ECOEconomic
61
INFInformation
70
HUMHumanitarian
5

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military43.3Diplomatic15.15Economic60.59Information70Humanitarian4.91

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr21 Apr22 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. US indicts former Cuban president Raúl Castro as it seeks to oust regime

    20 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  2. How IRGC’s ‘permit’ threats may impact submarine cables in Hormuz

    20 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    military/naval_activity
  3. US lifts sanctions against Francesca Albanese, UN rapporteur on Palestinians

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·France 24 English
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  4. US indicts former Cuban president Raúl Castro as it seeks to oust regime

    20 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  5. Ukraine and Russia Are Souring on U.S. Negotiations

    20 May 2026·information·Foreign Policy
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  6. Visual Explainer: Mapping Fentanyl Corridors in Mexico

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Mass Protests Plunge Bolivia Into Political Upheaval

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·Foreign Policy
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  8. While leaders meet in Beijing, families rewrite regional funding

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  9. US indicts former Cuban president Raúl Castro as it seeks to oust regime

    20 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  10. US drops bond requirement for FIFA World Cup ticket holders

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. Ukrainian PM Lisa Yasko asserts: Any country trading with Russia is on 'the wrong side of history'

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·France 24 English
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  12. US indicts Cuba's former president Raul Castro, 94, in connection with a 1996 incident

    20 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  13. قطر: پیوند‌های خوب کابل-اسلام‌آباد برای ثبات منطقه حیاتی است

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  14. How IRGC’s ‘permit’ threats may impact submarine cables in Hormuz?

    20 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    military/naval_activity
  15. Xi and Putin unite in criticism of US on nuclear, security issues

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·Dawn — Pakistan
    Low
    diplomatic/threat
  16. PSX gains 1,900 points, maintaining renewed buying

    20 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  17. Pakistan can buy Russian oil

    20 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. CENTCOM: Iran’s Drone and Missile Industries “90% Weakened”

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Moderate
    military/naval_activity
  19. Trump Says He Is Open to 20-Year Suspension of Iran’s Nuclear Program

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. Al Jazeera Correspondent: All Iranian Conditions for Resuming Negotiations Rejected

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. Tehran’s Conditions for Ending the War with the US Announced

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. NYT: Initial War Objective Was to Instate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Leader of Iran

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. IRGC Threatens U.S. and Israel with Expanding War beyond the Region

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Qalibaf: U.S. Is Preparing for Another War Against Iran

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. Venezuela Says It is Fighting Organized Crime. Is It?

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. Polish officials vent worries over scrapped US troop deployment

    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  27. Sierra Leone receives first group of West African deportees from US

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    diplomatic/relations_reduction
  28. The Trump-Xi Summit: What Happened in Beijing?

    20 May 2026·information·International Crisis Group (ICG)
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  29. Washington Might Be Ready to Bargain With Beijing

    20 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. CIA Director Ratcliffe’s Trip to Havana

    20 May 2026·information·Foreign Policy
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  31. Géopolitique des ports de l’Indo-Pacifique : le port de Chabahar — les limites de la « pression maximale »

    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  32. El Niño amplifiera considérablement les chocs tels que celui de la guerre en Iran

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  33. Putin and Xi Sign ‘Multipolar World’ Declaration in Beijing

    20 May 2026·information·Moscow Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  34. On the fog of Beijing

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  35. The Trump-Xi Summit’s Nuclear Shadow Over Asia

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. EEUU imputa a Raúl Castro por delitos de asesinato

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. Standing Firm on Core National Interests

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Liberan en Texas a médica venezolana que fue detenida por el ICE pese a tener asilo legal en EEUU

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. Cartel corruption claims push US-Mexico relations to breaking point

    13 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  40. Taiwan vs China: Is conflict inevitable?

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. مارک روته:بازگشت ترمپ به‌قدرت نقش مهمی در تقویت ناتو داشته است

    13 May 2026·military·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  42. سفیر پاکستان: نیروهای خارجی کابل و اسلام‌آباد را در برابر هم قرار دادند

    13 May 2026·military·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  43. U.S. House gathers votes to force consideration of USD1.3B aid package for Ukraine – NYT

    Low
    military/defense_procurement
  44. Drug overdose deaths drop in United States for third year in a row

    13 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. Sources: Lebanon-Israel meeting in Washington to extend ceasefire without securing halt in Israeli attacks on south

    13 May 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. Pakistan to construct island to boost oil exploration: report

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  47. Pakistan achieved 'military success over India' in May war: US report

    Low
    military/defense_procurement
  48. Soybeans on Beijing agenda but US farmers should temper optimism

    13 May 2026·information·Asia Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  49. Trump-Xi summit to weigh US energy sales amid Hormuz crisis

    13 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. At least 12 people killed in Israeli strikes on cars in Lebanon

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

27 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY27 instruments
ALBAlbemarle Corp — Lithium producer (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

BPBP plc (NYSE-listed ADR)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

COPConocoPhillips
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

FROFrontline plc — Crude tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

HAFNIHafnia Ltd — Product tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

HALHalliburton Co — Oilfield Services
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

LTHMArcadium Lithium plc — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

MPMP Materials Corp — US rare earth mining (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

NATNordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

OIHVanEck Oil Services ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

SHELShell plc (NYSE-listed)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

SLBSLB (Schlumberger) — Oilfield Services
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

SQMSociedad Química y Minera de Chile — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc — Product tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE (NYSE-listed ADR)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

USOUnited States Oil Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

VDEVanguard Energy ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

CIBRFirst Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

HACKETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

PANWPalo Alto Networks Inc
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)