Cuba

Low
country·CUB·Score 12.8→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
1
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
41
INFInformation
31
HUMHumanitarian
10

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military0.76Diplomatic0Economic41.12Information31.09Humanitarian9.79

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr29 Apr6 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. US charges Cuba's Raúl Castro with murder over 1996 downing of two planes

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. Why has the US indicted Cuba’s Raul Castro now?

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. Former Cuban president Raúl Castro indicted on murder charges in the US

    20 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  4. US charges Cuba's Raúl Castro with murder over 1996 downing of two planes

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Cuba: Plan of Action - United Nations (as of 31 March 2026)

    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  6. Cuba: 3W and Funding Overview (as of 30 April 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Cuba: Plan of Action - United Nations (as of 31 March 2026)

    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  8. Les volontaires locaux et les nouvelles sources d’énergie renforcent la réponse de la Croix-Rouge cubaine à l’ouragan Melissa, six mois après la tempête.

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  9. US indicts Cuba’s former leader Raul Castro: Why it matters

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Aardvark calf born at Chester zoo is ‘doing brilliantly’ after bottle-feeding

    20 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. US indicts former Cuban President Raul Castro

    20 May 2026·information·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  12. US indicts Cuba's former president Raul Castro in connection with a 1996 incident

    20 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  13. Cuba: US offers 'new path' and aid, Raul Castro indicted

    20 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Former Cuban president Raul Castro indicted on murder charges in the US

    20 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. US military jets and drones tracked near Cuba as tensions rise

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. Final two bodies of missing Italians recovered from inside Maldives cave

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Trump administration indicts Cuba’s Raul Castro over 1996 plane shootdown

    20 May 2026·information·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  18. US indicts Cuba’s Raul Castro over 1996 plane downing

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. Rubio llama a los cubanos en la isla a construir una “nueva Cuba” propuesta por Trump

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. 'No indication' Andes strain of hantavirus has mutated: EU agency

    13 May 2026·information·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  21. Trump urged to rule out ‘unlawful’ Cuba takeover and stop using Guantánamo Bay for migrant detention

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  22. The US has always been obsessed with controlling Cuba

    13 May 2026·diplomatic·Asia Times
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  23. Hantavirus: US cruiseship passenger gives quarantine room tour

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. WHO praises Spain's handling of repatriation: 'Further Hantavirus spread can be stopped effectively'

    13 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  25. ‘It’s a failed nation’: Trump pressures Cuba as fuel crisis deepens

    13 May 2026·information·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. WHO cautiously optimistic over hantavirus as more cases still possible

    12 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  27. PM Starmer clings on to power as Labour rivals make moves

    11 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  28. WFP Cuba Country Brief, March 2026

    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  29. WFP Cuba Country Brief, April 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  30. ‘A year of resistance’: Cuba’s private sector faces Trump’s oil blockade

    09 May 2026·economic·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  31. WFP Cuba Country Brief April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. US issues new Cuba sanctions as UN experts warn of ‘energy starvation’

    07 May 2026·diplomatic·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  33. Hantavirus: WHO assesses public health risk as low

    07 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Republicans poised to vote on new House map that would erase Democratic seat in Tennessee – US politics live

    07 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  35. Republicans poised to vote on new House map that would erase Democratic seat in Tennessee – US politics live

    07 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  36. New Trump counterterrorism strategy brands Europe an 'incubator' for terrorism

    07 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  37. US says migration has made Europe an ‘incubator’ for terrorism in new counter-terrorism strategy

    07 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  38. New Trump counterterrorism strategy brands Europe an 'incubator' for terrorism

    07 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  39. The Equality That Was Achieved… and the Inequality That Returned

    05 May 2026·information·OnCuba News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  40. U.S. oil siege of Cuba weighs down private sector Washington seeks to aid

    05 May 2026·economic·OnCuba News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  41. Cuba's economy collapses, prices soar

    03 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. Cuba condemns new US sanctions as 'illegal' and 'abusive'

    02 May 2026·diplomatic·BBC World News
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  43. New US sanctions are 'collective punishment', Cuba's FM says during May 1 marches

    02 May 2026·diplomatic·France 24 English
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  44. Havana slams new Trump sanctions as ‘collective punishment’ of Cuban people

    02 May 2026·diplomatic·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  45. Cuba says Trump’s fresh sanctions on its economy amount to ‘collective punishment’

    02 May 2026·diplomatic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  46. Octogenarian scuba diver not ready to hang up fins yet

    01 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General

    01 May 2026·military·UN Security Council Press Releases
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  48. Cuban man is 18th person to die in US ICE custody this year: Monitor

    01 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Photos: Cuba holds May Day celebrations amid US threats

    01 May 2026·diplomatic·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  50. Man on trial over alleged cocaine smuggling linked to diver's death

    30 Apr 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

14 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 12.8

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 12.8

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.8

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)