China

Low
country·CHN·Score 18.9→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
9
DIPDiplomatic
7
ECOEconomic
61
INFInformation
49
HUMHumanitarian
7

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military9.18Diplomatic6.85Economic60.59Information49.13Humanitarian6.62

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr22 Apr23 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. British Steel crisis derails China’s tariff-bypass strategy

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  2. The 3-body problem of the dollar-yen exchange rate (hint: China)

    20 May 2026·information·Asia Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  3. China - Earthquake (GDACS, USGS, media) (ECHO Daily Flash of 18 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  4. Same but different: how Xi and China welcomed Trump and Putin

    20 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  5. China goes electric, but can it get off coal?

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. German authorities arrest 2 on China high-tech espionage allegations

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Numbers of Tibetan exiles plummet as China tightens grip

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. PTI willing to hold dialogue with govt conditional on Imran’s release

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·Dawn — Pakistan
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  9. Putin's China visit looked like Trump's but couldn't have been more different

    20 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Trump and Xi Meet in Beijing Amid Push to Ease U.S.-China Tensions

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. Rubio Warns China amid Ship Seizure in the Strait of Hormuz

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  12. U.S. and China Agree to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  13. Donald Trump: Chinese President Offered Help to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  14. 26 Nations Call for Reopening of Strait of Hormuz

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  15. Former University of Michigan researcher accused of hiding Chinese military drone ties

    Low
    aviation/flight_disruption
  16. Is the West de-risking from China or containing its economy?

    20 May 2026·economic·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  17. VPRO Tegenlicht Meet Up | Fiona De Cuyper: ‘Koude oorlog op de Noordpool’

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  18. Why China Is Cracking Down on Elite Education

    20 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. What in the World?

    20 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. Argentina in talks to extend China currency swap even as repayments near completion

    20 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. On Trump’s Heels, Putin Gets a Lavish Welcome in China but No Blockbuster Deals

    20 May 2026·military·Moscow Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. Putin Arrives in Beijing With Entourage of Ministers and CEOs

    20 May 2026·military·Moscow Times
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  23. Putin Expected to Visit China Next Week, Reports Say

    20 May 2026·information·Moscow Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  24. British Steel crisis derails China’s tariff-bypass strategy

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  25. The 3-body problem of the dollar-yen exchange rate (hint: China)

    20 May 2026·information·Asia Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. Bond markets overpowering the AI trade

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  27. Trump-Xi summit reset cause for concern in Indonesia

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Pakistan and the Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing

    20 May 2026·information·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  29. China’s Plan for Winning the AI Race Hinges on the Token Economy, Not Chips

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. How China’s Population Stopped Noticing Their Country Had Been Sealed

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. How China Built a Closure That Cannot Leak

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. What Does a ‘Constructive’ China-US Relationship Mean for India?

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  33. Tibet’s Erasure From the Trump-Xi Summit Is a Huge Win for China

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Duterte vs Marcos: The Political Feud Tearing Apart the Philippines

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  35. While Trump Sought Business Deals, Beijing Came Prepared to Redefine China-US Relations

    20 May 2026·information·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  36. Tajikistan and China Sign Permanent Friendship Treaty

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  37. Trump, Xi Seek ‘New Chapter in China-US Relations’

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Pakistan’s Biggest Film Is Going to China. The Real Test for Cultural Ties Comes After.

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. Webworm Deploys EchoCreep and GraphWorm Backdoors Using Discord and MS Graph API

    Moderate
    cyber/apt_activity
  40. Live: Cost of war on agenda as Trump meets Xi, UAE denies Netanyahu's secret visit

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Both Trump and Xi Overestimate Themselves

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. Trump Has One Major Focus While in China: Trade

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  43. There’s No Need to Fear China’s Economy

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Beijing’s Quest for Uniformity May Be Its Achilles’ Heel

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. What Happened to Trump the China Hawk?

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. China’s Rare-Earth Card Looms Over Trump-Xi Summit

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. Trade, tech, and rare earths to dominate Trump's China trip

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    economic/supply_chain
  48. Trump Has One Major Focus While in China: Trade

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. As Trump readies to meet Xi, experts say he is ‘desperate for a win’

    13 May 2026·information·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  50. Trump shares fake quotes, falsely accuses Obama of treason in late-night rant

    13 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident

Market Signal Indicators

40 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY26 instruments
FXIiShares China Large-Cap ETF (Shanghai-HK / HSI / CSI)
composite 18.9

China composite threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical calm reduces foreign investor risk aversion toward Chinese equities; consider FXI/MCHI.

market/national_equity_buy_chn_v1

MCHIiShares MSCI China ETF
composite 18.9

China composite threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical calm reduces foreign investor risk aversion toward Chinese equities; consider FXI/MCHI.

market/national_equity_buy_chn_v1

ALBAlbemarle Corp — Lithium producer (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

BPBP plc (NYSE-listed ADR)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

COPConocoPhillips
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

FROFrontline plc — Crude tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

HAFNIHafnia Ltd — Product tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

HALHalliburton Co — Oilfield Services
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

LTHMArcadium Lithium plc — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

MPMP Materials Corp — US rare earth mining (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

NATNordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

OIHVanEck Oil Services ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

SHELShell plc (NYSE-listed)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

SLBSLB (Schlumberger) — Oilfield Services
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

SQMSociedad Química y Minera de Chile — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc — Product tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE (NYSE-listed ADR)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

USOUnited States Oil Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

VDEVanguard Energy ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 18.9

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 18.9

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 9.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)