Libya

Low
country·LBY·Score 15.3→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
2
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
40
INFInformation
70
HUMHumanitarian
1

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military1.5Diplomatic0Economic39.52Information70Humanitarian1.41

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr25 Apr1 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Libya - Reference Map (23/04/2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. Libyan prison chief known as 'Angel of Death' appears before ICC

    20 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. CBL to inject US$ 3 billion in May and another US$ 3.5 billion in June to meet accumulated demand and stabilise currency and commodity markets

    20 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  4. Libya signs Health MoU with Morocco on the sidelines of the 79th World Health Assembly in Geneve

    20 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. EU4Skills project organises workshop on quality management systems in the marine fisheries and fish products sector

    20 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. Libya emphasises it is not destination for irregular migration, cannot become migrant resettlement zone: Rome Quadripartite Cooperation Committee

    20 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  7. Fifth Libyan-German Economic Forum kicks off in Tripoli

    20 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  8. FX black-market has existed for years and decades, and eliminating it in a short period is impossible: CBL Governor Issa

    20 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  9. Libyan Industry Union and National Economic and Social Development Board to sign MoU to support manufacturing business environment

    20 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Bosnia Herzegovina engineering company Energoinvest signs € 2.71 million contract with Libyan Iron and Steel Co to construct a power station

    20 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  11. CBL renews call on Economy Ministry to prohibit imports without payment through official bank transfers starting from 15 June

    20 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  12. CVE-2026-44673 libyang: lyb_read_string() integer overflow → heap buffer overflow

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  13. Libyan Export Development Authority signs MoU with Libyan Italian Chamber of Commerce to develop non-hydrocarbon exports

    13 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Prosecutors demand 7-year sentence for former president Nicolas Sarkozy in Libya funding appeal

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. SPHERE EXPO 2026 held in Tripoli from 10 to 12 May offered a real estate investment platform for reconstruction opportunities in Libya

    13 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. Prosecutors to announce sentences for Sarkozy in Libya funding appeal

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Sirte Oil Company restarts First Methanol Plant and Second Nitrogen Unit

    13 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. Prosecutors to announce sentences for Sarkozy in Libya funding appeal

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. Transport Minister and Serbian Ambassador Todorović discuss visas, resumption of flights and Serbian Trade Minister’s Tripoli June visit

    13 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. Prosecutors to announce sentences for Sarkozy in Libya appeal trial

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. Prosecutors to announce sentences for Sarkozy in Libya appeal trial

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. Ministry of Economy issues decrees directing importers to use legal distribution channels to control prices in the market

    12 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. CBL renews call for closure of unofficial FX sales outlets – as dinar begins to slide again

    12 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. CBL renews call for closure of unofficial FX sales outlets – as dinar begins to slide again

    12 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. Benghazi Chamber of Commerce holds meeting with Croatian delegation to discuss economic cooperation and reactivate Croatian-Libyan trade relations

    12 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. Libya’s National Oil Corporation regains full control of Ras Lanuf Refinery from Emirati LERCO JV’s Trasta Company

    11 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  27. Sebha airport reopens following completion of maintenance on main runway and aprons

    11 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Migration Trends at Libya's Borders (January - March 2026)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  29. LBY: Complex Emergency - 05-2026 - Armed Conflicts in Zawiya (2026-05-09)

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  30. WFP Libya Country Brief, April 2026

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  31. United Nations in Libya launches Youth Advisory Team to advance the youth agenda

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. WFP Libya Country Brief, April 2026

    10 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  33. Akakus Oil confirms oil pipeline leak at Block 186, confirms leak fixed using Libyan cadres within hours – returning production to normal

    10 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  34. LIA welcomes UN Security Council’s updated Implementation Assistance Notice No. 6 clarifying interpretation of its asset freezing measures

    10 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  35. Libya’s Zawiya refinery resumes full operations

    10 May 2026·information·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  36. Libyan United Airlines holds Cabin Crew Open Day in Tripoli – in anticipation of its launch on a yet unspecified date

    10 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. CBL source to Libya Herald: CBL moving towards ending cash collection of taxes and customs duties – moving solely to e-collections

    10 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  38. Tripoli Court convicts former Financial Controller at the Libyan mission in Bangladesh to fours jail for financial fraud

    09 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  39. Zawia armed clashes ended – Zawia Refinery’s Aviation Kerosene Tank 501 ruptured

    09 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  40. Zueitina Oil begins maintenance of oil tank (D1) in Field 103A – for the first time entirely in-house

    09 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  41. LISCO completes commissioning and testing of High Cold Rolling Mill – implemented by Turkish company Partner Teknik

    09 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  42. Libya’s largest oil refinery halts operations during fighting

    08 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    military/explosion
  43. Zawia clashes lead to Zawia Refinery shutdown and evacuation of Zawia Port

    08 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  44. Health Ministry signs Strategic Cooperation Agreement 2026-2027 with WHO – announces results of the 100-Day Initiative

    08 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  45. AfDB offers to help fund Libya’s Libya-Africa Transit Corridors Project: LAIP

    08 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. Two detained and others questioned in US$ 2.8 million Wahda Bank documentary credits fraud investigation

    08 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  47. Health Ministry hails the implantation of first wireless pacemaker in Libya and eighth in Africa – part of its 100-day Plan

    08 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  48. Libya joins World Bank’s initiative to eliminate Routine Gas Flaring by 2030‎ – saving about US$ 650 million per year

    07 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. REAoL signs MoU with Libyan Ports Authority to transit to use of clean energy and environmental sustainability in Libyan ports

    07 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. After launching its flights to Tripoli on 1 May, Air Cairo plans new flights to Sebha, Misrata, and Benghazi soon

    07 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident

Market Signal Indicators

17 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY3 instruments
CIBRFirst Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

HACKETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

PANWPalo Alto Networks Inc
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 15.3

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 15.3

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)