Philippines

Low
country·PHL·Score 5.6→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
8
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
5
INFInformation
5
HUMHumanitarian
1

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military8.22Diplomatic0Economic5.43Information4.74Humanitarian1.15

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510022 Apr30 Apr8 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Why Were Shots Fired in the Philippines Senate?

    20 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. Family Business: Dynastic Politics in the Philippines

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. What’s Next After the Senate Coup in the Philippines?

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  4. Farmers Endure Militarization in the Philippines’ ‘Massacre Capital’

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  5. Gunshots fired in Philippines senate in standoff with senator wanted by ICC

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. Gunshots fired in Philippines senate in standoff with senator Ronald dela Rosa

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Shots fired in Philippine senate as ICC seeks to arrest ex-police chief

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. Gunshots fired in Philippines senate in standoff with senator Ronald dela Rosa

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  9. Gunshots fired in Philippines senate in standoff with senator Ronald dela Rosa

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Shots fired in Philippine senate as ICC seeks to arrest ex-police chief

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. Gunshots fired in Philippines senate in standoff with senator Ronald dela Rosa

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  12. Gunshots in Philippines senate where senator is holed up to evade arrest

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  13. Gunshots in Philippines senate where senator is holed up to evade arrest

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Breaking: Shots fired in Philippine senate as ICC seeks to arrest ex-police chief

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. Gunshots in Philippines senate where senator is holed up to evade arrest

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. Breaking: Shots fired in Philippine senate as ICC seeks to arrest ex-police chief

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Video: Philippine senator flees ICC arrest over role in drug war

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  18. Chaos in Philippines as Duterte ally wanted by ICC takes refuge in senate to avoid arrest

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  19. Sara Duterte faces fresh impeachment try in Philippines

    11 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. Philippines: Police chief ‘Bato’ dela Rosa must be arrested and surrendered to ICC

    11 May 2026·military·Amnesty International
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. Philippine lawmakers impeach Vice President Sara Duterte

    11 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. Sara Duterte faces fresh impeachment try in Philippines

    11 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. Philippine lawmakers move to impeach VP Sara Duterte

    11 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Sara Duterte faces impeachment trial likely ending her presidential hopes

    11 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. Sara Duterte to face impeachment trial after key vote

    11 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. Breaking: Sara Duterte to face impeachment trial after key vote

    11 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. The Philippines bets big on nickel’s battery boom

    11 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    economic/supply_chain
  28. How Corruption Exacerbates the Climate Crisis in the Philippines

    08 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. Rising Fuel costs overshadowing agenda for ASEAN summit in the Philippines

    07 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. US Army fires Tomahawk missile from new Typhon launcher during Philippines drill

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. Philippines: Massive ash cloud fills sky as volcano erupts

    04 May 2026·humanitarian·France 24 English
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  32. Critical cPanel Vulnerability Weaponized to Target Government and MSP Networks

    Moderate
    cyber/apt_activity
  33. Philippines' Mayon volcano spews debris over 52 villages

    04 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Philippines' Mayon volcano spews ash — Pictures

    03 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  35. Philippines volcano erupts, blanketing ash across the sky

    02 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. US Army tests fresh drones, 3D printers at ‘Balikatan’ drill in the Philippines

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  37. Manila’s Piecemeal Military Modernization

    01 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. US Marines help gun down beach invaders in simulated Philippines defense

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. DNA links Florida man in Philippines to 1989 child abduction

    29 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. World Bank invests $24.5mn in Philippines' food sustainability

    28 Apr 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Corruption Allegations Mount Against Philippines’ President and Vice President

    27 Apr 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. Blackouts in the Philippines as power bills soar

    27 Apr 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  43. Paper trail tightens around another Duterte in the Philippines

    27 Apr 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. ICC says Philippines' Duterte can stand trial over war on drugs

    24 Apr 2026·information·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  45. Philippines’ ex-president Rodrigo Duterte to face trial for crimes against humanity

    23 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. Philippines’ ex-president Rodrigo Duterte to face trial for crimes against humanity

    23 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. BSP tightens policy in the Philippines as inflation surge overrides growth concerns

    23 Apr 2026·information·Intellinews
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  48. ICC blocks ex-Philippine President Duterte release, says it can try him

    22 Apr 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. ICC judges reject bid to release former Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte

    22 Apr 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

25 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL25 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 5.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 5.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

BPBP plc
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

FROFrontline plc
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

MPMP Materials Corp
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

SHELShell plc
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services
economic 5.4

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.2

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)