Italy

Low
country·ITA·Score 7.7→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
1
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
27
INFInformation
27
HUMHumanitarian
0

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military0.56Diplomatic0Economic27.27Information26.95Humanitarian0.21

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr24 Apr2 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Italy weekly snapshot - 18 May 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. British Council staff in Italy to strike over proposed 80% workforce cut

    20 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. Millions follow India's viral 'cockroach' movement

    20 May 2026·information·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  4. Who is Mario Draghi, this year's Charlemagne Prize winner?

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Colosseum selfies and 'Melody' toffee: Modi meets Meloni in Rome

    20 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. Italy buying six Airbus-made A330 MRRT tankers, a $1.6B value

    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  7. Airbus to open new A330 tanker facility in Spain, announces demo with Spanish Navy

    Low
    military/defense_procurement
  8. Italy rethinks EU defense-financing aid as arms spending falls out of fashion

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  9. Italy settles on Airbus tanker purchase in swing toward European equipment

    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  10. Former Wallabies coach handed ban and pay cut for abusing officials

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. Australia launches first America's Cup challenge in 25 years

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  12. PTI defends MNA Iqbal Afridi’s son over asylum move, assails govt’s ‘oppression’

    13 May 2026·information·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  13. PTI defends MNA Iqbal Afridi’s son over asylum move, assails govt’s ‘oppression’

    13 May 2026·information·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  14. PTI defends MNA Iqbal Afridi’s son over asylum move, assails govt’s ‘oppression’

    13 May 2026·information·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  15. Ukrinform journalist Olha Zvonariova wins prestigious military journalism award in Italy

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. PTI defends MNA Iqbal Afridi’s son over asylum move, assails govt’s ‘oppression’

    13 May 2026·information·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  17. Kate tours Italy in first overseas visit since cancer recovery

    13 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. French minister says uncertain if hantavirus strain from cruise ship has mutated

    12 May 2026·information·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  19. Libyan Express and Italy’s 4 Airways to launch joint Libya-Europe air route ”soon”

    11 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  20. Italy weekly snapshot - 11 May 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. Italy-US ties strained as pope and Iran war dominate talks

    08 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. Aussie teen returns from injury to race in new Italian championship

    08 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - as it happened

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. WHO warns of more hantavirus cases as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. Hantavirus outbreak ‘not start of pandemic’ says WHO, as Canaries secure concessions over cruise docking plans - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  33. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  35. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. World Health Organization expects more hantavirus cases but doesn’t ‘anticipate large epidemic’ - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  43. Five hantavirus cases confirmed from the cruise ship, with three more suspected, says WHO chief - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Five hantavirus cases confirmed from the cruise ship, with three more suspected, says WHO chief - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. World Health Organization gives update on hantavirus virus outbreak on cruise ship - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. Rubio meets Pope Leo in bid to ease tensions after Trump’s criticism of the pontiff - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. Rubio meets Pope Leo in bid to ease tensions after Trump’s criticism of the pontiff - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  48. Rubio set to meet Pope Leo in bid to ease tensions after Trump’s criticism of the pontiff - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Rubio meets Pope Leo in bid to ease tensions after Trump’s criticism of the pontiff - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. Rubio set to meet Pope Leo in bid to ease tensions after Trump’s criticism of the pontiff - Europe live

    07 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

15 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY1 instrument
EWIiShares MSCI Italy ETF (Milan / FTSE MIB)
composite 7.7

Italy composite threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical calm reduces Italian sovereign risk premium; consider EWI equity exposure.

market/national_equity_buy_ita_v1

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 7.7

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 7.7

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)