Turkey

Low
country·TUR·Score 8.5 4.2
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
8
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
4
INFInformation
28
HUMHumanitarian
3

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military8.01Diplomatic0Economic3.96Information28.34Humanitarian3.06

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr28 Apr4 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. TRC National Societies Support Fund (NSSF) Infographic - May 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  2. Türkiye - Severe weather and floods (Türkiye Disaster and Emergency Management - AFAD, media, MGM - Turkish State Meteorological Service) (ECHO Daily Flash of 14 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  3. Türkiye: Cash-based Interventions Technical Working Group (CBI TWG) National Meeting Minutes 12 May 2026, Online Meeting [EN/TR]

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  4. Türkiye: Cash Based Interventions Technical Working Group Online (May 12, 2026)[Presentation]

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Turkey targets press freedom in trial of DW's Alican Uludag

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. Suspect arrested in possession of over 400 currency debit cards destined for money laundering via UAE and Turkey

    20 May 2026·military·Libya Herald
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. New Turkish ICBM signals nuclear deterrence ambitions beyond NATO

    20 May 2026·information·Asia Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  8. Armenia welcomes Turkey move to lift bilateral trade ban

    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  9. Turkey opens bilateral trade with Armenia after decades of closure

    13 May 2026·information·OC Media
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  10. Türkiye: 3RP Türkiye Quarterly Newsletter (Issue #1, January - March 2026) [EN/TR]

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  11. UN High Commissioner for Refugees engages with global leaders in Türkiye (April 2026)

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  12. Turkey’s STM debuts new unmanned systems, is ‘really open’ to Gulf collaboration

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  13. Turkey’s Aselsan eyes growth in networked, mass-producible weapons, CEO says

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Canada eyes Turkey as a fellow mid-power ally in weapons development

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. EU will provide €20 million in humanitarian aid for vulnerable refugees and host communities in Türkiye in 2026

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  16. Turkey touts propellant breakthrough for Yıldırımhan long-range ballistic missile

    Low
    nuclear/missile_test
  17. An Analysis of Afghan Onward Movements from Iran to Türkiye

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  18. Brush turkey used for 'target practice' survives six months with arrow in back

    07 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. Turkey’s prosecutors recorded 17mn people as “suspects” in 2025

    06 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. Turkish exercise sees Libya’s rival forces train together for second time within weeks

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. Health needs assessment report in Istanbul, Gaziantep & Hatay

    05 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  22. Türkiye - Severe weather (media, Turkish State Meteorological Service) (ECHO Daily Flash of 5 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  23. Türkiye - Severe weather (media, Turkish State Meteorological Service) (ECHO Daily Flash of 5 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  24. Weather tracker: Cold spells in Greece and Turkey, and storms in Bangladesh

    04 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  25. Weather tracker: Cold spells in Greece and Turkey, and storms in Bangladesh

    04 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. Africa: Turkey Raises Residence Permit Fee By 930 Percent for Nigerians, 36 Other African Countries

    04 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  27. Monday, 4 May 2026

    04 May 2026·military·OC Media
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez’s plane makes emergency landing in Turkey

    04 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez’s plane makes emergency landing in Turkey

    04 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. WFP Türkiye Country Brief, April 2026 (Reporting period: March 2026)

    04 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  31. WFP Türkiye Country Brief, April 2026 (Reporting period: March 2026)

    03 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  32. Turkish police arrest more than 500 people at May Day rallies

    01 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  33. Turkish police arrest more than 500 people at May Day rallies

    01 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. UAE strikes back at Turkey in fight to become global investor haven

    01 May 2026·information·Intellinews
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  35. Türkiye | Ukraine and Impacted Countries Emergency Appeal - Final Report (MGR65002), March 2026

    01 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  36. Türkiye: Basic Needs Working Group - National Meeting Minutes (21 April 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. Türkiye: Basic Needs Working Group - National Meeting Minutes (21 April 2026) [TR]

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Türkiye Market Bulletin: Issue No. 35, Quarter 3 & 4 2025 (July - December)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  39. Türkiye: Elazığ Camp Post Distribution Monitoring Report, Q4/2025

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  40. Türkiye: In-camp Post Distribution Monitoring Report, Q3/2025

    Low
    economic/food_security
  41. Türkiye: In-camp Post Distribution Monitoring Report, Q1/2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  42. Türkiye: Cash-for-Food Assistance in Earthquake Affected Region - Baseline Report (March 2026)

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  43. Türkiye: Cash for Food Assistance in Container Cities - Post-Distribution Monitoring Report, Q4 2025

    Low
    economic/food_security
  44. Türkiye: Cash for Food Assistance in Container Cities - Post-Distribution Monitoring Report, Q2 2025

    Low
    economic/food_security
  45. Türkiye: Cash-for-Food Assistance in Earthquake Affected Region - Baseline Report (March 2026)

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  46. Türkiye: Protection Sector Dashboard - Izmir - April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. Türkiye: Protection Sector Dashboard - Marmara - April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  48. Southeast Türkiye: Protection Sector Achievements - April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Türkiye: Protection Sector Achievements - April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. Türkiye: Inter-Sector Dataset - April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

26 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY1 instrument
TURiShares MSCI Turkey ETF (Borsa Istanbul / BIST 100)
composite 8.5

Turkey composite threat score below 25 (Low) — regional calm reduces risk premium on Turkish equities; consider TUR ETF exposure.

market/national_equity_buy_tur_v1

SELL25 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 8.5

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 8.5

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

BPBP plc
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

FROFrontline plc
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

MPMP Materials Corp
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

SHELShell plc
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services
economic 4.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)