Ukraine
GuardedDimension Scores
Rule-based per-dimension breakdown
Dimension Radar
Relative weight of each analytical dimension
Score Trend
30-day composite score history — hover for details
Top Indicators
Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay
Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.
Evidence Timeline
Source events that contributed to this score
Trump says Ukraine lacks leverage. His own officials say otherwise.
Lowunknown/unmappedMerz hopes Xi will press Putin to end war in Ukraine
Lowunknown/unmappedRussia conducts unannounced 'nuclear exercises' to distract attention from problems at front — ISW
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashUkraine identifies infostealer operator tied to 28,000 stolen accounts
Moderatecyber/incidentUkraine: Deadly wave of Russian strikes put children at risk
Moderatemilitary/explosionHumanitarians Must Be Protected While Safely Delivering Aid to Those in Need [EN/RU/UK]
Lowunknown/unmappedASG Khiari warns of escalating fighting and rising civilian toll in Ukraine | United Nations Peace Operations
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashUkraine: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict - April 2026
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashOver 3,500 children – equivalent to 177 classrooms - killed or injured in Ukraine war with numbers rising this year
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashMs. Edem Wosornu, Director, Crisis Response Division, OCHA, on behalf of Mr. Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator – Briefing to the Security Council on Ukraine, 19 May 2026
Moderatecyber/incidentAt Security Council, Director Kayoko Gotoh calls for renewed diplomacy and ceasefire in Ukraine (19 May 2026)
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashFACTSHEET 2026 Mines : utilisation, contamination et dommages causés aux civils en Ukraine Mars 2026
Moderatemilitary/explosionAMDA Emergency Relief #57: Crisis in Ukraine, 19 May 2026
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementГуманітарна ситуація в Україні: оновлення оперативного реагування УВКБ ООН. 12 травня 2026 р. [UK]
Lowunknown/unmappedUkraine: Winter Response Snapshot (October 2025 – March 2026)
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementUNHCR Ukraine Protection Update #10 - Q1 2026
Moderatemilitary/explosionUkraine - Concept of Operations Map, January 2026
Moderatecyber/incidentUkraine - Operation Overview, Jan-Mar 2026
Moderatecyber/incidentUNHCR Ukraine Localization Factsheet - May 2026
Moderatecyber/incidentUkraine CWG Technical Working Group, 30 April 2026 [Meeting Minutes]
Lowunknown/unmappedUkraine Health Cluster Partner Emergency Response to Attacks, as of 30 April 2026
Lowunknown/unmappedAre Xi and Putin still ‘best friends’? – The Latest
Lowunknown/unmappedNATO planes down suspected Ukrainian drone over Estonia
Lowunknown/unmappedUkraine: Dozens of European countries sign up to special tribunal plan to prosecute Russia
Lowunknown/unmappedWill Ukraine corruption scandal reach Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
Lowunknown/unmapped'Very bad optics for Kremlin': Putin's China visit regarded as 'crisis & relations management trip'
Moderatecyber/incidentAfridi, Aleema claim shots were fired at Adiala sit-in participants
Lowdiplomatic/protestNATO eastern deterrence strategy takes shape around ‘autonomous zone’
Moderatecyber/incidentUkraine declares its first homegrown guided aerial bomb combat-ready
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashLights, camera, Bangaranga: Highlights from Eurovision
Lowunknown/unmappedUkraine War ‘Deadlier by the Day’, Security Council Hears, amid Calls for Ceasefire and Protection of Civilians
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashSC, 10152nd Meeting (AM) Ukraine
Moderatecyber/incidentColumn Rob de Wijk | Putin is in a tight spot and must now take the first step
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashColumn Rob de Wijk | Western countries are uniting under the EU
Loweconomic/energy_disruptionUkraine Has a New War Strategy—and It’s Working
Moderatecyber/incidentQuels sont les enseignements de l’attaque de drones de l’Ukraine contre Moscou ?
Lowunknown/unmappedFrom Russia to Ukraine, VR Capital bets on wartime recovery
Moderatecyber/incidentUkraine headed for recessionary spiral
Lowunknown/unmappedKyiv Says Russia Returned 528 Bodies to Ukraine
Lowunknown/unmappedRussian Army Preparing ‘Appropriate’ Response After Latvia Accused of Hosting Ukrainian Drones, Kremlin Says
Lowunknown/unmappedRussia’s Spy Agency Claims Ukraine Plans to Launch Drone Attacks From Latvia
Moderateinformation/operationUkrainian Drone Attack Kills 2 in Belgorod Region
Lowunknown/unmappedMass Ukraine Drone Barrage Kills 3 in Moscow Region
Lowunknown/unmappedUkraine Drone Attack Kills 1 in Belgorod Region
Lowunknown/unmappedDozens of Countries Pledge Support for Special Tribunal to Prosecute Russian Leaders for Ukraine Invasion
Lowunknown/unmappedRussian Dissident Nina Litvinova Dies by Suicide at 80
Lowunknown/unmappedRussia and Ukraine Begin First Phase of Large POW Exchange
Lowunknown/unmappedGovernor Reshuffle in Border Regions Shows How Kremlin Is Militarizing Russia’s Elites, Experts Say
Moderatecyber/incidentKremlin Rejects EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks
Lowunknown/unmappedHungary Summons Russian Ambassador After Drone Attacks on Western Ukraine
Lowunknown/unmapped
Market Signal Indicators
24 analytical signals · derived from current threat score
⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.
Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.
market/critical_minerals_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.
market/commodity_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.
market/shipping_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.
market/commodity_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.
market/shipping_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.
market/critical_minerals_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.
market/critical_minerals_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.
market/shipping_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.
market/critical_minerals_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.
market/critical_minerals_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.
market/shipping_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.
market/commodity_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.
market/energy_stocks_buy_v1
Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.
market/shipping_buy_v1
Score Explanation
Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT
Reconstruction Check
Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)