Taiwan

Low
country·TWN·Score 13.5 0.6
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
3
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
39
INFInformation
24
HUMHumanitarian
0

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military2.67Diplomatic0Economic38.84Information24.05Humanitarian0

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr27 Apr3 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Pakistan, China share 'converging vision' on regional and global issues, says DPM Dar

    20 May 2026·information·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  2. Will Trump kill the $14bn Taiwan arms deal?

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    military/defense_procurement
  3. After Trump-Xi Summit, Taiwan Breathes a Sigh of Relief

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  4. Trump’s China Opening and Japan’s Taiwan Anxiety

    20 May 2026·information·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  5. The Real Key Moment for Taiwan Comes After the Trump-Xi Summit

    20 May 2026·information·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  6. Taiwan’s Special Defense Budget Cut Will Cost Its Drone Capabilities

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    military/defense_procurement
  7. What Trump and Xi Want From Their Summit

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. House Foreign Affairs greenlights trio of arms sale bills, including Taiwan support

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  9. What Trump and Xi Want From Their Summit

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Break with US policy: Trump to discuss Taiwan arms sales with Xi

    13 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. Trump-Xi summit: China’s help in Iran may require US concessions

    13 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  12. One Country, Two Islands: Beijing’s Long Bet That an Open Hainan Can Hook Taiwan

    13 May 2026·information·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  13. Trump-Xi summit: China’s help in Iran may require US concessions

    13 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. What Trump and Xi Want From Their Summit

    13 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. Trade, Iran and Taiwan on the agenda as Trump arrives in China for high-stakes talks with Xi

    13 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. Trump arrives in China for historic trip

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Trump arrives in China for high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping

    13 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  18. Trump arrives in China for high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping

    13 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  19. What Trump and Xi want from China visit

    13 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. Trump arrives in China for high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping

    13 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  21. Trump arrives in China ahead of summit with Xi Jinping

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. Trump arrives in China ahead of summit with Xi Jinping

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. Trump arrives in China ahead of summit with Xi Jinping

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Ahead of Trump-Xi summit, China warns on US arms sales to Taiwan

    13 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  25. Trump arrives in China ahead of summit with Xi Jinping

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. Trump-Xi Summit: Trump to ask Xi to 'open up' China

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. US President Trump touches down in Beijing for a highly anticipated summit with China's Xi Jinping. Follow live

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. China’s Xi expected to press Trump on Taiwan, tariffs during summit

    13 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  29. US-China summit could reshape global power

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. Trump-Xi summit: Trade, Taiwan and Iran on the table at high-stakes Beijing meeting

    13 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  31. Trump and Xi to meet in Beijing: The key issues shaping the China summit

    13 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. Rush hour on Air Force one as Melania director Brett Ratner joins Trump China trip

    13 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  33. Trump-Xi Summit: Trump to ask Xi to 'open up' China

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Iran war costs soar past $29bn as truce teeters

    13 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  35. Trump 'could choose to change Taiwan policy in Beijing' unhindered by Congress, analyst says

    12 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. What Trump and Xi Want From Their Summit

    12 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. Trump heads to China in bid to boost trade, reduce Iran and Taiwan tensions

    12 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Trump heads to China in bid to boost trade and reduce Iran, Taiwan tensions

    12 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. Trump heads to China for superpower summit

    12 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. Trump-Xi summit: High stakes for the US, China and the world

    12 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  42. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  43. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  44. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  45. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  46. Trump-Xi summit: High stakes for the US, China and the world

    12 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  48. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  49. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  50. Trump to head to China for high-stakes talks with Xi – US politics live

    12 May 2026·economic·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    economic/disruption

Market Signal Indicators

15 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY1 instrument
EWTiShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (TWSE)
composite 13.5

Taiwan composite threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait calm reduces risk premium on Taiwanese equities; consider EWT exposure.

market/national_equity_buy_twn_v1

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 13.5

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 13.5

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 2.7

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)