Afghanistan

Low
country·AFG·Score 15.7 0.1
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
12
DIPDiplomatic
14
ECOEconomic
18
INFInformation
44
HUMHumanitarian
10

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military11.58Diplomatic13.57Economic17.94Information44.01Humanitarian10.24

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr23 Apr27 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. آغاز ساخت مجتمع مسکونی لاجورد با سرمایه‌گذاری ۱۵۰ میلیون دالری در مزارشریف

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  2. ایجاد نمایشگاه دایمی سنگ‌های تاریخی در قلعه اختیارالدین هرات

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  3. Afghanistan Socio-Economic Review: Mass Returns at a time of Growing Insecurity 2024-2025

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  4. Afghanistan: Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026, Response Overview (1 January - 31 March 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Regional Supply Routes Overview: Focus on Afghanistan Northern Border - May 18, 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. Afghanistan: Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026, Response Overview (1 January - 28 February 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Afghanistan: Conflict Displacement and Returnee Influx Contingency Plan 2026 (May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  8. Afghanistan: ADI Working Group Meeting (20 May 2026) [Presentation]

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  9. Afghan Perspectives on the Future of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. 2026 Response Plan for Afghan Returnees (RPAR) From Pakistan and Iran (Border response and (re-)integration response in areas of return)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  11. EMR Polio Bulletin Issue No. 1441, Week 19 (ending on 17/05/2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  12. Afghanistan Emergency Situation Report Issue No. 63 | April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  13. Afghanistan Humanitarian Response: WASH Cluster Updates - Cluster Achievements - April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Afghanistan: Weekly Market Report: Issue 295: Week 2 - May 2026

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  15. Afghanistan: Assisted Afghan returnees from Pakistan, Iran and other countries (from 10 May to 16 May 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. WFP Afghanistan Country Brief, May 2026

    Low
    economic/food_security
  17. UNHCR - Pakistan Voluntary Repatriation of Afghan Refugees (1 January to 30 April 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  18. Afghanistan: Monthly Market Report Issue 71: April 2026

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  19. Afghanistan | Earthquake - Operation Update #4 (MDRAF019)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  20. Afghanistan | Earthquake - DREF Operational Update (MDRAF019)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  21. UNAMA expresses concern over detention of Journalists | United Nations Peace Operations

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  22. Afghan women and children pay the price as crises converge and funding shrinks

    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  23. Pakistan-Afghanistan - Returns Emergency Response #51 (as of 9 May 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Afghanistan - Flow Monitoring Update (26 Apr - 09 May, 2026) [EN/Dari/PS]

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. توزیع بیش از سی‌ویک‌هزار نمره زمین بر مهاجران بازگشته به کشور

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. پرداخت بیش از ۴.۴ میلیارد افغانی به‌ مالکان زمین‌های استملاک‌شده

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  27. شهباز شریف: خواهان روابط صلح‌آمیز با افغانستان استیم

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  28. تودې خبرې - د کډوالو له بلې څپې سره مخ افغانستان

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  29. تاکید بر معیاری‌سازی کارخانه‌های دوا در کشور

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  30. بررسی چگونگی ادغام افغان‌های بازگشته در فورم جهانی شهری

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  31. شهباز شریف: خواهان روابط صلح‌آمیز با افغانستان استیم

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  32. آغاز ساخت کارخانه ذوب آهن ۲۰۰ میلیون دالری در لوگر

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  33. فراخبر - صنعت دوا در افغانستان؛ آیا کشور به‌سوی خودبسندگی می‌رود؟

    20 May 2026·military·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. ساخت ابزار ویژه برای کمک به حیوان‌های ناتوان در هرات

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  35. ترس از بازداشت؛ عامل اصلی بازگشت افغان‌ها از پاکستان

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  36. بررسی چگونگی ادغام مهاجران بازگشته در فورم جهانی شهری

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  37. گام تازه‌ی یک مربی افغان در فوتبال اروپا

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  38. کندهار کې پر خوارځواکۍ د اخته ماشومانو ترمنځ د نري رنځ پېښې زياتې شوي

    20 May 2026·military·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. آی‌اواېم: له پاکستانه د افغان کډوالو ستنېدل لا هم په لوړه کچه روان دي

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  40. مزارشریف ښار کې د ۱۵۰ میلیونه افغانیو په لګښت ۶ پوړیز سوداګریز مرکز جوړیږي

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  41. روان کال له سل زرو زیاتو سېلانیانو د تخار له تفریحي سیمو لیدنه کړې

    20 May 2026·military·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. روز جهانی موزیم؛ پاسداری از میراث فرهنگی و تاریخی

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  43. Selling children to survive: Afghan fathers forced to make impossible choices

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Holding the Line in Afghanistan: Women’s health in crisis and one NGO’s response

    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  45. نزدیک به ۲۵۰۰ جوان در غزنی آموزش‌های رایگان فرا گرفته‌اند

    13 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  46. نافذ شدن قانون فروش و توزیع نمره‌های امارتی و اعطای اجازه‌ی ساختمان

    13 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  47. Pakistan dismisses Khalilzad's claim about Daesh-K presence in Punjab

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  48. گزارش تازه‌ی برنامه انکشافی ملل‌متحد درباره‌ی وضعیت افغانستان

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  49. تجهیز ۹ بندر و مرکز کشور؛ قرارداد تازه اداره‌ی معیار و کیفیت با شرکت هندی

    13 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  50. Mobility Dynamics at Afghanistan's Borders: Flow Monitoring Quarterly Report (January - March 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

25 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL25 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 15.7

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 15.7

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

BPBP plc
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

FROFrontline plc
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

MPMP Materials Corp
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

SHELShell plc
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services
economic 17.9

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 11.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)