Russia

Guarded
country·RUS·Score 32.7→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
44
DIPDiplomatic
6
ECOEconomic
61
INFInformation
57
HUMHumanitarian
3

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military43.77Diplomatic6.12Economic60.59Information56.57Humanitarian3.2

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr21 Apr22 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Russia deliberately redirects Ukrainian drones toward Baltic states – Lithuanian FM

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  2. Russian jet fighters dangerously intercept RAF plane over Black Sea

    20 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. Russian jet fighters dangerously intercept RAF plane over Black Sea

    20 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  4. Why Russian jets intercepting an RAF spy plane is 'serious incident'

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    aviation/flight_disruption
  5. Watch: Why Russian jets intercepting an RAF spy plane is 'serious incident'

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    aviation/flight_disruption
  6. Fire continues in Chornobyl Exclusion Zone after Russian drone strike

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. How a Russian village lives after all the men went to war: million-ruble debts at grocery stores, bears roaming the streets

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. War update: 177 clashes on front lines, heaviest fighting on Pokrovsk front

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  9. Russian drone destroys two-story residential building in Sumy region

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. What’s the significance of the Russian president’s visit to China?

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. China and Russia unite after Trump’s Beijing visit

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  12. Russian drone attack on Chuhuiv community injures man, damages infrastructure

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  13. Austrian ex-intelligence officer found guilty of Russia spying charges

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. Russian jet causes ‘dangerous’ near miss after flying close to RAF spy plane

    20 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    aviation/flight_disruption
  16. Russian threats against Baltics ‘unacceptable’ and danger to ‘our entire union’, EU’s von der Leyen says - as it happened

    20 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. How China became Russia's economic lifeline

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. Latvia: Prime Minister Evika Silina resigns over handling of drone incidents after coalition ally's withdrawal

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  20. 'Nothing is safe': Trade on route between Senegal and Mali grinds to a halt

    20 May 2026·economic·France 24 English
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  21. سازمان‌های امنیتی بر پی‌گیری وضعیت افغانستان تاکید کردند

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  22. دهلیز خزر؛ طرح ترانزیتی روسیه برای اتصال منطقه‌ای

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  23. شرکت برشنا از آغاز ۱۷ پروژه برق خبر داد

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  24. وزارت اقتصاد: منافع افغانستان و روسیه مشترک است

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  25. رییس‌جمهور قرغیزستان: به وضعیت افغانستان توجه ویژه خواهیم داشت

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. Putin to Visit China Immediately After Trump’s Visit to Beijing

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. Russia launches unannounced nuclear exercise, including Belarusian launch sites

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Army leaders in hot seat over Poland deployment cancellation

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. What really holds China and Russia together

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. Rosenberg: Putin enjoys Xi's Chinese welcome but heads home without pipeline deal

    20 May 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  31. Russia ‘dangerously’ intercepts British spy plane over Black Sea: Ministry

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    aviation/flight_disruption
  32. What is the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline that Russia, China are planning?

    20 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  33. ‘Multipolar world’: What Xi and Putin announced after Beijing summit

    20 May 2026·information·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  34. Russia: Journalist Ivan Safronov jailed for 22 years on trumped-up treason charges is a prisoner of conscience

    20 May 2026·military·Amnesty International
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  35. What Does Putin Want From Xi?

    20 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. État des lieux de la désinformation climatique russe en Europe

    Moderate
    aviation/airspace_restriction
  37. Désinformation climatique et guerre informationnelle : ingérences étatiques et enjeux sécuritaires

    Moderate
    aviation/airspace_restriction
  38. Russia climbs to sixth place among Europe’s wine producers

    20 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. Autonomous trucks clock 250,000 km a week on Russian highways

    20 May 2026·information·Intellinews
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  40. Russia oil and gas revenues up 40% in May on Iran war pressures

    20 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Putin arrives in Beijing with high powered delegation

    20 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. Putin and Xi deepen anti-West axis

    20 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  43. Russia’s ruble best performing currency in the world in 1Q26

    20 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    economic/currency_crisis
  44. Finland to Deport Anti-War Russian Who Donated to Navalny’s Banned Political Group

    20 May 2026·military·Moscow Times
    Moderate
    military/naval_activity
  45. U.K. Loosens Russian Oil Sanctions Amid Soaring Energy Costs

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·Moscow Times
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  46. Who Is Yana Lantratova, Russia’s New Human Rights Commissioner?

    20 May 2026·information·Moscow Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  47. Sorry, Europe, Russia Isn’t Satanic Enough for Eurovision

    20 May 2026·military·Moscow Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  48. Russian Director Andrey Zvyagintsev Returns to Cannes Film Festival After Near-Fatal Illness

    20 May 2026·military·Moscow Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Hovercraft Accident Kills 5 Russian Tourists on Lake Baikal

    20 May 2026·military·Moscow Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. Russia Begins Major Nuclear Drills

    20 May 2026·information·Moscow Times
    Moderate
    cyber/incident

Market Signal Indicators

24 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY24 instruments
ALBAlbemarle Corp — Lithium producer (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

BPBP plc (NYSE-listed ADR)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

COPConocoPhillips
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

FROFrontline plc — Crude tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

HAFNIHafnia Ltd — Product tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

HALHalliburton Co — Oilfield Services
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

LTHMArcadium Lithium plc — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

MPMP Materials Corp — US rare earth mining (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

NATNordic American Tankers Ltd (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

OIHVanEck Oil Services ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

SHELShell plc (NYSE-listed)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

SLBSLB (Schlumberger) — Oilfield Services
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

SQMSociedad Química y Minera de Chile — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc — Product tanker operator (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE (NYSE-listed ADR)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

USOUnited States Oil Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated range) — sanctions, trade disruption, or resource competition detected; commodity safe-haven demand likely.

market/commodity_buy_v1

VDEVanguard Energy ETF
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — sanctions, shipping disruption, or energy infrastructure attacks signal supply-side oil price pressure. Integrated majors (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, TTE) benefit from higher realised prices; oilfield services (SLB, HAL) benefit from upstream capex surges as producers rush to lock in volumes.

market/energy_stocks_buy_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services (NYSE)
economic 60.6

Economic threat score above 60 (Elevated) — shipping lane disruptions (Red Sea Houthi attacks, Hormuz tensions, Suez incidents) reduce effective global fleet capacity as vessels reroute around danger zones, extending voyage times 10-20 days and lifting spot rates 3-4×. Tanker operators (FRO, STNG, NAT, HAFNI) benefit from higher crude and product freight rates; ZIM benefits when container capacity tightens.

market/shipping_buy_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)