Ethiopia

Low
country·ETH·Score 14.1 1.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
0
DIPDiplomatic
14
ECOEconomic
32
INFInformation
70
HUMHumanitarian
3

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military0.34Diplomatic13.99Economic31.95Information70Humanitarian3.16

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr26 Apr2 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Ethiopia - Oromia Region - West Wellega Zone - General Reference Map (26 Mars 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. Shifting to an Inclusive Livestock Sector in the Horn of Africa - RLP Learning Brief #1 | April 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  3. Norway strengthens emergency preparedness at 1,000 hospitals in Africa

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  4. Ethiopia - Oromia Region - West Wellega Zone - Health Reference Map (26 Mars 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Highly variable seasonal conditions and developing El Niño signals concerns across East Africa

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  6. Ethiopia - Somali Region - Gashamo Woreda - General Reference Map (27 Mars 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Ethiopia: Beyond survival, a journey defined by possibility

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. “Ethiopia needs third telecom operator, invest USD5bln to triple towers”: Andualem Admassie (PhD)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  9. Cabinet Establishes New Federal Rapid Disaster Response Agency

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  10. Ministry Bans Patient Testimonials in Health Service Advertisements

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  11. Banks’ demand for central bank’s forex auction doubles

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  12. Election Board Requests Nearly 10bln Birr in Supplementary Budget

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  13. Tigray tensions raise fears of Ethiopia-Eritrea war

    13 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Ethiopia: Ethiopian Marathon Star Yebrgual Melese Dies During Training

    13 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  15. Ethiopia: Ethiopian Marathon Star Yebrgual Melese Dies at 36

    13 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  16. Gazanche Primary School Project Launched with Site Handover Ceremony in Gurage Zone, Ethiopia

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  17. Officials Brief Development Partners on WTO Progress, AfCFTA Developments

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  18. Ethiopia - Meeting Minutes - Addis Ababa, 28 April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. Security Partnership, Regional De-escalation Headline Ethiopia-US Structured Dialogue

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  20. Zegeye Asfaw, Champion of Land Reform, Passes

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. Zegeye Asfaw, Ethiopian National Dialogue Commissioner, Dies

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. UNHCR CORE Ethiopia: Displacement Overview, Week 1 - as of 11 May 2026

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  23. Visa Unveils New Ethiopia Office Location, Reinforcing Commitment to the Market

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Africa: Africa CDC, Ethiopia Inaugurate CPHIA 2026

    11 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  25. Ethiopia: Ethiopia's Dynamic Role in Building Continental Conversation, National Narrative

    11 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. Ethiopia: Ethiopia's Pursuit of Sea Access 'Inevitable Strategic Choice,' - Mohammed Al-Arousi

    11 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  27. Ethiopia Food Security Outlook Update: High fuel prices and market dependence ahead of lean season strain food access, April - September 2026

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  28. Ethiopia: Ethiopia's President Taye Holds Talks With UN Official Li Junhua On Dev't Goals

    10 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. Ethiopia: Ethiopia's President Taye Holds Talks With UN Official Li Junhua On Dev't Goals

    09 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. Ethiopia: Ethiopian Economic Reform Attracts Zimbabwean Investors - Ambassador Rashid

    09 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. East Africa: Ethiopia Spearheads Digital Hub for African Content Creators

    09 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  32. Africa: Ethiopia's Multifaceted Achievements Serve As Model for Africa, Say Social Media Influencers

    09 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  33. Ethiopia: ENA Chief Urges Influencers to Champion Authentic African Narratives

    09 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  34. Ethiopia: African Influencers Told to Harness Digital Power for Transformation

    09 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  35. Fledging Insurance Industry Primed for Big Changes under New Proclamation

    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  36. Rights Commission, Election Board, Security Officials at Odds over Election Prep Pitfalls

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  37. Ethiopia Introduces Revocable and Conditional Pardons Under New Federal Directive

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Press Freedom Under Siege: Ethiopia’s Democratic Test

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  39. STAGED BUT UNPAID

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. Ethiopia Defers Eurobond Payments for Five Years as Railway Debt Poised for Shift to Finance Ministry Books

    Low
    economic/sovereign_debt
  41. D.C. United to play the Ethiopia National Team in a Friendly at Audi Field on July 11

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. UNESCO Calls for Stronger Press Freedom Protections Ahead of 2026 Elections

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  43. Through the Lens of the Public: Is Ethiopia’s Health System Progress Being Felt on the Ground?

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Ethiopia Risks Losing Focus – Agriculture Must Come First, But Guided by Science, Not Habit

    Low
    economic/food_security
  45. Do African countries need AI laws?

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  46. Ethiopia - UNHAS - Standard Administrative and Operating Procedures (SAOP) Part 1 (Users) - Oct 2025

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  47. Ethiopia - UNHAS Ethiopia Flight Schedule, May-July 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  48. DR Congo's Tshisekedi angers opposition leaders

    08 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  49. DR Congo's Tshisekedi angers opposition leaders

    08 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  50. DR Congo's Tshisekedi angers opposition leaders

    08 May 2026·information·France 24 English
    Moderate
    cyber/incident

Market Signal Indicators

17 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY3 instruments
CIBRFirst Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

HACKETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

PANWPalo Alto Networks Inc
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 14.1

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 14.1

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.3

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)