Sudan

Low
country·SDN·Score 22.1 4.5
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
7
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
27
INFInformation
52
HUMHumanitarian
33

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military6.62Diplomatic0Economic27.09Information52.34Humanitarian33.41

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr22 Apr27 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Solidarités International Newsletter May 2026 - Sudan Mission

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  2. Crisis in Darfur: “This is a war against civilians”

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. WFP Sudan Market Monitor - April 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  4. Out of the spotlight: The war in Sudan enters its fourth year

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  5. Sudan Key Facts and Figures (April 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. Middle East war causing “most expensive Eid ever” and rising global hunger

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  7. Statement of the Sudan Women Advisory Group to the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) on the killing of several volunteers and humanitarian workers in Dilling in South Kordofan state [EN/AR]

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  8. New Figures on Hunger in Sudan: Nearly 19.5 million people are Facing High Levels of Acute Food Insecurity

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  9. Sudan Crisis Situation Analysis: (Period: 04/05/26 - 10/05/26)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  10. Communiqué de presse conjoint – PAM/FAO/UNICEF : Le risque de famine persiste alors que près de 19,5 millions de personnes sont confrontées à une insécurité alimentaire aiguë au Soudan

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  11. Sudanese Are Not Waiting for International Support—They Have Begun the Recovery from Within

    Low
    economic/food_security
  12. UNHCR Sudan: Flash Update #8 – Darfur and Kordofan Situation Update (March – April 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  13. WFP Sudan Market Monitor - May 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Comunicado de prensa conjunto - WFP/FAO/UNICEF: Persiste el riesgo de hambruna, ya que casi 19,5 millones de personas se enfrentan a una inseguridad alimentaria aguda en Sudán

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  15. Attacks on Health Care in Sudan, 29 April - 12 May 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  16. Sudan Protection Cluster: Protection Risks Severity Classification (March 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  17. Risk of Famine Continues to Stalk Families in Sudan as Hunger Deepens | World Food Programme

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  18. Joint News Release WFP/FAO/UNICEF: Risk of Famine persists as nearly 19.5 million people face acute food insecurity in Sudan

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  19. Sudan Strategy Support Program Working Paper 26 - Farming in Crisis: Livelihood Challenges and Resilience in Conflict-Affected Sudan (May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  20. Sudan IPC analysis: increasing severity of hunger and mass starvation

    Low
    economic/food_security
  21. Sudan: Major food and nutrition crisis persists as conflict enters fourth year and risk of Famine looms (IPC Special Snapshot & Recommendations)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  22. Sudan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026 (April 2026) [EN/AR]

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  23. WFP Sudan Market Monitor - March 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. INGO Forum Reactive Statement on Sudan IPC Findings

    Low
    economic/food_security
  25. ICRC RED Aircraft to Operate from Jeddah to Strengthen Humanitarian Access to Sudan

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  26. Sudan Nashra: Ethiopia revokes Sudanese ambassador-designate’s credentials | Juba asks Cairo to evacuate military base near Ethiopian border as preemptive move | Another Mahamid field commander defects from RSF | RSF aid coordination authority orders agencies to register, Khartoum warns against compliance

    20 May 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. Sudan: RSF commander ‘Abu Lulu’ must be removed from battlefield immediately amid war crimes allegations

    20 May 2026·military·Amnesty International
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  28. ICRC RED aircraft to operate from Jeddah to strengthen humanitarian access to Sudan

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  29. AGRA Report Spotlights Growing Food Insecurity, Surging Commodity Prices in Ethiopia

    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  30. Ghana to bring home 300 after anti-migrant incidents in S.Africa

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·France 24 English
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  31. Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·UN Security Council Press Releases
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  32. Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·UN Security Council Press Releases
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  33. Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·UN Security Council Press Releases
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  34. ACAPS Sudan Risk Analysis [2026] (Thematic Report 13 May 2026)

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  35. Sudan: UN Warns Sudan War Entering 'Deadlier Phase'

    13 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  36. Sudan: Between Khartoum and Nyala - Humanitarian Aid Stuck Amid Legitimacy Conflict

    13 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  37. Sudan: Between Khartoum and Nyala - Humanitarian Aid Stuck Amid Legitimacy Conflict

    13 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  38. Strategic SWOT Analysis of Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (PSEA) Programming in Sudan (2024-2025): Informing the Development of the two-year 2026-27 UNCT/HCT PSEA Action Plan – January 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  39. Fighting in Sudan’s Blue Nile State displaces thousands

    13 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. UNHCR Sudan - Ethiopian Refugees Overview in Sudan as of 30 April 2026

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  41. Sudan: Eritrean Refugees Overview in Sudan (as of 30 April 2026)

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  42. UNHCR Sudan - South Sudanese Refugees in Sudan Dashboard as of 30 April 2026

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  43. UNHCR Sudan - Overview of Refugees and IDPs in Sudan Dashboard as of 30 April 2026

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  44. UNHCR Sudan - Overview of Refugees and Asylum-seekers in Sudan Dashboard as of 30 April 2026

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  45. Sudan Site Management and Shelter & NFI Cluster: Preparedness and Response Plan (May 2026)

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  46. Shelter Failure in Sudan is a Protection Risk: Urgent Funding Needed Before the Rains - May 2026

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  47. Sudan: UN Warns Sudan War Entering 'Deadlier Phase' As Drone Strikes Kill Hundreds, Attacks Spread Across Multiple Regions

    13 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  48. Sudan: UN Warns Sudan War Entering 'Deadlier Phase' As Drone Strikes Kill Hundreds, Attacks Spread Across Multiple Regions

    12 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  49. Sudan: UN Warns Sudan War Entering 'Deadlier Phase' As Drone Strikes Kill Hundreds, Attacks Spread Across Multiple Regions

    12 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  50. Why have peace efforts failed to end conflict in Sudan?

    12 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

14 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 22.1

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 22.1

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 6.6

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)