Iran

Guarded
country·IRN·Score 43.4 0.1
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
52
DIPDiplomatic
34
ECOEconomic
59
INFInformation
49
HUMHumanitarian
23

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military51.83Diplomatic34.01Economic58.84Information48.8Humanitarian23.07

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr21 Apr21 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. IEA chief: Only weeks of oil inventories left thanks to Iran war

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  2. Reeves to promise free summer bus rides for children and food tariff cuts in living costs package

    20 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    economic/trade_war
  3. Iran examining US proposal as Trump says talks in 'final stages'

    20 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  4. راه‌اندازی پروازهای مستقیم شرکت «ساها» میان مشهد و مزارشریف

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  5. Michael Bay to direct film based on US military rescue mission in Iran

    20 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  6. Digital bottleneck: How Iran wants to use internet access as leverage in the war

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·France 24 English
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  7. Digital bottleneck: How Iran wants to leverage internet access for the war

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·France 24 English
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  8. Michael Bay to direct film based on US military rescue mission in Iran

    20 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  9. Digital bottleneck: How Iran wants to use internet access for leverage in the war

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·France 24 English
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  10. UNHCR Middle East Situation: Emergency Update #18 as of 19 May 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  11. UNHCR CORE Middle East Situation - as of 19 May 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  12. UNHCR Iran: Protection Concerns Among Afghan Refugees - Helpline & Field Insights #2 | Shifting trends since the ceasefire

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  13. Escalation in the Middle East and Beyond - Situation Report (16 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  14. Current Supply Routes - Syria Operations (as of 12 May 2026)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  15. Current Supply Routes: Afghanistan Operations (as 12 May 2026)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  16. Iran-Afghanistan - Returns Emergency Response #29

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Escalation in the Middle East and Beyond - Mobility Report (05 - 11 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  18. World Health Organization - Middle East Escalation of Conflict, Global Situation report #7 - 14 May 2026

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  19. In Iran, internet access becomes a luxury for the few

    20 May 2026·economic·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  20. Kenya transport strike over fuel price hikes called off

    20 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. احتمال بازگشت ۲.۷ میلیون مهاجر از ایران و پاکستان در سال۲۰۲۶

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  22. رییس‌جمهور ایران از افغانستان، پاکستان و عراق قدردانی کرد

    20 May 2026·information·Tolo News — Afghanistan
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  23. U.S. Warns Iran Is “Weeks Away” From Weapon-Grade Uranium

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Four Political Defendants in Iran Sentenced to 30 Years in Prison Combined

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. January Protest Detainee Mohammad Abbasi Executed in Iran

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  26. Children’s Rights Activist Mehdi Shafakhah Arrested in Iran

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. Iran’s National Football Team or the Regime’s Football Club?

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Araghchi at BRICS Summit; Iran War Takes Center Stage in New Delhi

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. 1,800 Hours of Blackout; Pezeshkian’s Deputy: Security is More Important than Internet

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    cyber/internet_shutdown
  30. Iran Confiscates Properties of 50 Alleged Regime Opponents

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. Iranian Singer Moein Denies Reports of Singing for Iran’s National Football Team

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. Araghchi at BRICS: UAE Was a Partner in Aggression against Iran

    20 May 2026·information·IranWire — Iran
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  33. Female Workers Among First to Lose Jobs During Iran’s Economic Crisis

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. 30 Ships Passed Through the Strait of Hormuz as Indian Vessel Came Under Attack

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  35. Jailed After Mahsa Amini Coverage, Iranian Sisters Win Global Journalism Award

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. Iranian MP Proposes €50 Million Bounty for Trump

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. Tehran Faces Harsh Summer as Iran’s Water Crisis Deepens

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Iranian Police Accused of Attempting to Take Over University Science Park

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. FBI Offers $200,000 Reward for Information on Defected Officer in Iran

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. Anti-Negotiation MPs: They Closed Parliament to Stop Us from Interfering

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Tehran Virtual Book Fair: Online Storefront or a Lifeline for a Crisis-Ridden Industry?

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. Exclusive: Half of the Medical Staff Detained During January Protests Still Not Released

    20 May 2026·diplomatic·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  43. Azerbaijani Turk Activist Bahram Ebrahimpour Arrested in Iran

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Iran-UAE Clash Prevents Joint Statement at BRICS Meeting

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. More Baha'is Persecuted in Iran

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. Return of Aziz Jafari: Former Commander or the Man Behind Iran’s Core Power Structure?

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. Exclusive: Political Executions Outnumber Officially Released Figures

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·IranWire — Iran
    Moderate
    humanitarian/civilian_violence
  48. Trump Reposts Images of War with Iran

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Widespread Sale of Pro Internet: Profiting From Public Suffering Yet Again

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    cyber/internet_shutdown
  50. Daniyal Eivazi January Protester: Security Forces ‘Didn’t Even Spare Children’

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·IranWire — Iran
    Moderate
    humanitarian/civilian_violence

Market Signal Indicators

5 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY5 instruments
ALBAlbemarle Corp — Lithium producer (NYSE)
economic 58.8

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

LTHMArcadium Lithium plc — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 58.8

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

MPMP Materials Corp — US rare earth mining (NYSE)
economic 58.8

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 58.8

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

SQMSociedad Química y Minera de Chile — Lithium (NYSE)
economic 58.8

Economic threat score above 55 (Elevated) — sanctions, supply chain weaponisation, or China critical mineral export restrictions signal acute scarcity for defense electronics and EV battery supply chains. REMX provides broad exposure; MP Materials benefits as the only active US rare earth producer; ALB/SQM/LTHM benefit from lithium scarcity driven by conflict-zone supply disruption and EV demand surge.

market/critical_minerals_buy_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)