Somalia

Low
country·SOM·Score 18.6→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
10
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
23
INFInformation
45
HUMHumanitarian
19

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military9.94Diplomatic0Economic23.32Information45.26Humanitarian19.26

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr25 Apr28 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Somalia: More Instability for Somalia As Another Election Deadline Lapses

    20 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. Crisis hunger levels worsen in Somalia | NRC

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  3. Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview Rural, Urban and IDP Food Security Outcomes: Projection Update, April - June 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  4. Somalia - Estimated Malnutrition Situation (GAM) Projection Update: April - June 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Somalia Weekly Weather Forecast - Valid From 13 to 19 May 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  6. Drought and displacement affect millions in Somalia and Ethiopia

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  7. Somalia Crisis Cannot Wait, Never Again: End the Funding Exclusion, Save Lives Now

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  8. Somalia Updated Acute Malnutrition Burden by District (January - December 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  9. Somalia Updated Acute Malnutrition Burden by Region (January - December 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Somalia – deterioration of food insecurity and malnutrition (IPC) (IPC - Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, DG ECHO) (ECHO Daily Flash of 18 May 2026)

    Low
    economic/food_security
  11. IRC warns Somalia is on the brink of catastrophe as new IPC projections signal renewed famine risk

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  12. Reaction: Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report | Oxfam International

    Low
    economic/food_security
  13. Communiqué de presse conjoint – OCHA/FAO/PAM/UNICEF : les agences des Nations Unies alertent sur l’aggravation de la crise de la faim et de la malnutrition en Somalie, alors que le risque de famine est imminent

    Moderate
    aviation/airspace_restriction
  14. Joint Press Release: UN agencies warn of worsening hunger and malnutrition crisis in Somalia as famine risk emerges

    Low
    economic/food_security
  15. Somalia - Emergency Trend Tracking (ETT) - 5 Districts assessed | Week 60 (02 - 06 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  16. Somalia Food Security Outlook Update April - September 2026: Bay Bakool agropastoral areas face risk of Famine if gu rains underperform

    Low
    economic/food_security
  17. Somalia Early Warning-Early Action Dashboard Time Series Chart: Trends in the Number of Risk Factors in Alarm Phase (Jan 2015 - Apr 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. Radio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 14 May 2026

    Low
    economic/food_security
  19. About half of children under 5 in Somalia battling malnutrition as risk of famine announced for the first time in four years

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  20. Somalia: Girls face heightened risk as hunger crisis worsens

    Low
    economic/food_security
  21. Somalia Food Security Alert: Agropastoral areas in and around Bay face a risk of Famine from June onward (May 14, 2026)

    Low
    economic/food_security
  22. Somalia Monthly Rainfall Performance, Jan 2006 - Apr 2026: Deviations from Short Term Averages

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. Somalia Monthly Vegetation Conditions (NDVI), Jan 2007 - Apr 2026: Deviations from Short Term Averages

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Somalia Early Warning-Early Action: Trends in Risk Factors, Jan 2021 - Apr 2026 (Indicators in Alarm Phase)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. Somalia 2026 Jilaal-Impact IPC Analysis: Projection Updated for Apr-Jun 2026 - A Briefing Presentation to All Stakeholders (14 May 2026, Mogadishu)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  26. Somalia: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis (April - June 2026) Issued on 14 May 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  27. Somalia: More Instability for Somalia As Another Election Deadline Lapses

    20 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Somalia: Somalia Election Talks Stall in Mogadishu As Dispute Deepens

    13 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. Somalia: A Return to Dictatorship Amid Tensions Pushing the Country to the Brink

    13 May 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  30. Somalia Economic Update May 2026 | Edition No. 11: Navigating Shocks, Powering Growth

    Low
    economic/food_security
  31. Somalia: Somali Opposition Plans May 16 Protest in Mogadishu Over President's Term

    13 May 2026·diplomatic·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  32. Somalia: Somali Opposition Plans May 16 Protest in Mogadishu Over President's Term

    12 May 2026·diplomatic·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  33. Somalia | Complex emergency - DG ECHO Daily Map | 12/05/2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Somalia - Meeting Minutes - Mogadishu, 21 April 2026

    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  35. Somalia – Severe rains and flash floods (UN OCHA) (ECHO Daily Flash of 12 May 2026)

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  36. Somalia: Somali Opposition Plans May 16 Protest in Mogadishu Over President's Term

    12 May 2026·diplomatic·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  37. Somalia – severe rains and flash floods (UN OCHA) (ECHO Daily Flash of 12 May 2026)

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  38. Somali piracy disrupts global shipping and trade routes

    12 May 2026·economic·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  39. Somalia & Somaliland - April 2026

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  40. Riverine Flood Advisory [Moderate / Watch], Shabelle River Flood Situation (Issued: 11 May 2026)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  41. Somalia | Drought Early Action Protocol Activation Report (EAP No.: EAP2024SO01, Operation No.: MDRSO019), 11 May 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  42. Drought and displacement push millions to the brink in Somalia and Ethiopia’s Somali Region

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  43. Somalia: Somali Opposition Condemns Government Over Blocked Protest in Mogadishu

    11 May 2026·diplomatic·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  44. Drought and displacement push millions to the brink in Somalia and Ethiopia’s Somali Region

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  45. UNHCR Somalia Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network Flash Alert 19 | May 2026 - Inter-Clan Conflict in Laashimo Valley, Sanaag Region, Displaces Approximately 9,000 People and Heightens Protection Risks

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  46. Somalia: Democratic Elections Held Peacefully in Somalia's South West State

    11 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  47. Somali piracy adds new strain to global shipping and trade routes

    11 May 2026·economic·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  48. HOLD// Somali piracy adds new strain to global shipping and trade routes

    11 May 2026·economic·Deutsche Welle English
    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  49. The world's piracy hotspots – Statista

    11 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  50. Somalia: Somali PM Says Government Focused On Security, Democratic Transition

    11 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident

Market Signal Indicators

25 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL25 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 18.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 18.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

BPBP plc
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

FROFrontline plc
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

MPMP Materials Corp
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

SHELShell plc
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services
economic 23.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 9.9

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)