Somalia
LowDimension Scores
Rule-based per-dimension breakdown
Dimension Radar
Relative weight of each analytical dimension
Score Trend
30-day composite score history — hover for details
Top Indicators
Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay
Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.
Evidence Timeline
Source events that contributed to this score
Somalia: More Instability for Somalia As Another Election Deadline Lapses
Lowunknown/unmappedCrisis hunger levels worsen in Somalia | NRC
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview Rural, Urban and IDP Food Security Outcomes: Projection Update, April - June 2026
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia - Estimated Malnutrition Situation (GAM) Projection Update: April - June 2026
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia Weekly Weather Forecast - Valid From 13 to 19 May 2026
Moderatecyber/incidentDrought and displacement affect millions in Somalia and Ethiopia
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia Crisis Cannot Wait, Never Again: End the Funding Exclusion, Save Lives Now
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia Updated Acute Malnutrition Burden by District (January - December 2026)
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia Updated Acute Malnutrition Burden by Region (January - December 2026)
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia – deterioration of food insecurity and malnutrition (IPC) (IPC - Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, DG ECHO) (ECHO Daily Flash of 18 May 2026)
Loweconomic/food_securityIRC warns Somalia is on the brink of catastrophe as new IPC projections signal renewed famine risk
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementReaction: Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report | Oxfam International
Loweconomic/food_securityCommuniqué de presse conjoint – OCHA/FAO/PAM/UNICEF : les agences des Nations Unies alertent sur l’aggravation de la crise de la faim et de la malnutrition en Somalie, alors que le risque de famine est imminent
Moderateaviation/airspace_restrictionJoint Press Release: UN agencies warn of worsening hunger and malnutrition crisis in Somalia as famine risk emerges
Loweconomic/food_securitySomalia - Emergency Trend Tracking (ETT) - 5 Districts assessed | Week 60 (02 - 06 May 2026)
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia Food Security Outlook Update April - September 2026: Bay Bakool agropastoral areas face risk of Famine if gu rains underperform
Loweconomic/food_securitySomalia Early Warning-Early Action Dashboard Time Series Chart: Trends in the Number of Risk Factors in Alarm Phase (Jan 2015 - Apr 2026)
Lowunknown/unmappedRadio Ergo Weekly Feedback Report, Issued: 14 May 2026
Loweconomic/food_securityAbout half of children under 5 in Somalia battling malnutrition as risk of famine announced for the first time in four years
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia: Girls face heightened risk as hunger crisis worsens
Loweconomic/food_securitySomalia Food Security Alert: Agropastoral areas in and around Bay face a risk of Famine from June onward (May 14, 2026)
Loweconomic/food_securitySomalia Monthly Rainfall Performance, Jan 2006 - Apr 2026: Deviations from Short Term Averages
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia Monthly Vegetation Conditions (NDVI), Jan 2007 - Apr 2026: Deviations from Short Term Averages
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia Early Warning-Early Action: Trends in Risk Factors, Jan 2021 - Apr 2026 (Indicators in Alarm Phase)
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia 2026 Jilaal-Impact IPC Analysis: Projection Updated for Apr-Jun 2026 - A Briefing Presentation to All Stakeholders (14 May 2026, Mogadishu)
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis (April - June 2026) Issued on 14 May 2026
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia: More Instability for Somalia As Another Election Deadline Lapses
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia: Somalia Election Talks Stall in Mogadishu As Dispute Deepens
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia: A Return to Dictatorship Amid Tensions Pushing the Country to the Brink
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashSomalia Economic Update May 2026 | Edition No. 11: Navigating Shocks, Powering Growth
Loweconomic/food_securitySomalia: Somali Opposition Plans May 16 Protest in Mogadishu Over President's Term
Lowdiplomatic/protestSomalia: Somali Opposition Plans May 16 Protest in Mogadishu Over President's Term
Lowdiplomatic/protestSomalia | Complex emergency - DG ECHO Daily Map | 12/05/2026
Lowunknown/unmappedSomalia - Meeting Minutes - Mogadishu, 21 April 2026
Moderateeconomic/disruptionSomalia – Severe rains and flash floods (UN OCHA) (ECHO Daily Flash of 12 May 2026)
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia: Somali Opposition Plans May 16 Protest in Mogadishu Over President's Term
Lowdiplomatic/protestSomalia – severe rains and flash floods (UN OCHA) (ECHO Daily Flash of 12 May 2026)
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomali piracy disrupts global shipping and trade routes
Moderateeconomic/disruptionSomalia & Somaliland - April 2026
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementRiverine Flood Advisory [Moderate / Watch], Shabelle River Flood Situation (Issued: 11 May 2026)
Moderatecyber/incidentSomalia | Drought Early Action Protocol Activation Report (EAP No.: EAP2024SO01, Operation No.: MDRSO019), 11 May 2026
Moderatecyber/incidentDrought and displacement push millions to the brink in Somalia and Ethiopia’s Somali Region
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementSomalia: Somali Opposition Condemns Government Over Blocked Protest in Mogadishu
Lowdiplomatic/protestDrought and displacement push millions to the brink in Somalia and Ethiopia’s Somali Region
Moderatehumanitarian/refugee_movementUNHCR Somalia Protection and Solutions Monitoring Network Flash Alert 19 | May 2026 - Inter-Clan Conflict in Laashimo Valley, Sanaag Region, Displaces Approximately 9,000 People and Heightens Protection Risks
Moderatemilitary/armed_clashSomalia: Democratic Elections Held Peacefully in Somalia's South West State
Moderatecyber/incidentSomali piracy adds new strain to global shipping and trade routes
Moderateeconomic/disruptionHOLD// Somali piracy adds new strain to global shipping and trade routes
Moderateeconomic/disruptionThe world's piracy hotspots – Statista
Loweconomic/energy_disruptionSomalia: Somali PM Says Government Focused On Security, Democratic Transition
Moderatecyber/incident
Market Signal Indicators
25 analytical signals · derived from current threat score
⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.
Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.
market/safe_haven_sell_v1
Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.
market/safe_haven_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.
market/energy_stocks_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.
market/energy_stocks_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.
market/shipping_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.
market/critical_minerals_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.
market/critical_minerals_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.
market/energy_stocks_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.
market/shipping_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.
market/energy_stocks_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.
market/energy_stocks_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.
market/energy_stocks_sell_v1
Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.
market/shipping_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.
market/semiconductor_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.
market/semiconductor_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.
market/semiconductor_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.
market/semiconductor_sell_v1
Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.
market/defense_sell_v1
Score Explanation
Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT
Reconstruction Check
Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)