Lebanon

Low
country·LBN·Score 19.8 0.4
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
16
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
22
INFInformation
30
HUMHumanitarian
21

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military15.99Diplomatic0Economic22.29Information29.57Humanitarian20.67

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr23 Apr27 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Lebanon: Flash Update #27 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon (as of 18 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  2. Lebanon: Flash Update #27 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon (as of 19 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  3. At least 59 children reportedly killed or injured in Lebanon in the past week despite ceasefire – UNICEF

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  4. Lebanon: Flash Update #25 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon (as of 11 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  5. WHO Lebanon Health Emergency Situation Update #23 (08 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  6. Lebanon Crisis Situation Analysis (Period: 27/04/26 - 03/05/26)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  7. Lebanon - Zahle - West Bekaa - Reference Map (11/04/2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. Lebanon: Conflict Intensity Snapshot (2 March - 19 May 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  9. Lebanon - Saida - Chouf - Greater Beirut - Reference Map (11/04/2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Cambridge and Alsama Project partner on new school-leaver qualification to help refugees and displaced youth access university, training and jobs worldwide

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  11. WeWorld Flash Update #4 – Humanitarian needs persist despite Ceasefire (19 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  12. Lebanon: Protection Sector Weekly Response Sitrep #9 - 2 March to 15 May 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  13. UNRWA Situation Report #10 on the Lebanon Emergency Response 2026 (7 May 2026) [EN/AR]

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  14. Lebanon Crisis Situation Analysis (Period: 04/05/26 - 10/05/26)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  15. Research Terms of Reference: Humanitarian Situation Monitoring of hard-to-reach conflict-affected areas in Lebanon – LBN2601 (March 2026, V 1)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  16. “Every minute felt endless”: Pregnant women displaced in Lebanon carry life through crisis

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  17. Lebanon: Middle East Escalation, LTC Situation Report (Telecoms) #06 - Reporting period: 01 - 15 May 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  18. Lebanon - Greater Beirut - Reference Map (05/03/2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. Amel Situation Report #2: Supporting all populations affected by the crisis- March & April 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  20. Líbano: Israel aplica el manual de instrucciones de Gaza

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  21. Current Supply Routes: Lebanon Operations (as of 12 May 2026)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  22. Lebanon Health Sector Emergency Situation Report Issue #11 - May 18, 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  23. WHO Situation Report No.9: Middle East Conflict (1-14 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  24. WHO Lebanon Health Emergency Situation Update #24 (15 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  25. Lebanon: Flash Update #26 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon (as of 14 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  26. Lebanon: Conflict Intensity Snapshot (2 March - 14 May 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. The Gaza Playbook: How Israel’s Gaza script is playing out in Lebanon

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  28. Lebanon: Protection Snapshot: Displacement Post-Escalation (16 Apr - 08 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  29. Impact of the Current Conflict on Gender-Based Violence (GBV) Risks and Needs in Lebanon | GBVIMS Task Force - Lebanon Q1 2026 Analysis

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  30. Lebanon: Middle East Escalation - Global LTC Teleconference (Telecoms Area) #07 (Date: 12 May 2026 Time: 11:00 UTC)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. MSF condemns Israeli forces’ killing of paramedics in Lebanon

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. Lebanon Situation Report - Update #09 (7 - 13 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  33. Under Fire and Under-Nourished: Nutrition and Health Needs of Infants, Young Children, and Pregnant and Lactating Women in Lebanon

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  34. Au Liban, au moins 59 enfants auraient été tués ou blessés au cours des sept derniers jours malgré le cessez-le-feu

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  35. Middle East Conflict: Lebanon Response Situation Report #5 | May 13, 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  36. Sweden announces more than SEK 2.7 billion in humanitarian assistance to the world’s most vulnerable

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  37. UNHCR Facilitated Return of Syrian Refugees - Lebanon, 30 April 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  38. IRGC-Affiliated Media Report Hezbollah Attack on Iron Dome

    20 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. UN peacekeeping forces prepare to leave Lebanon, but what comes next?

    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  40. The Doublespeak of Lebanon’s Other Shiite Leader

    20 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Wes Streeting: PM-in-waiting or ‘this generation’s David Miliband’?

    13 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  42. Wes Streeting prepares to launch leadership challenge against Keir Starmer

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  43. Wes Streeting prepares to launch leadership challenge against Keir Starmer

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Wes Streeting prepares to launch leadership challenge against Keir Starmer

    13 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. Wes Streeting: PM-in-waiting or ‘this generation’s David Miliband’?

    13 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  46. Lebanon: Flash Update #25 - Escalation of hostilities in Lebanon (as of 11 May 2026)

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  47. Lebanon: Nearly 600 killed since fragile ceasefire agreed | NRC

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  48. Humanitarian Action for Children 2026 Revision 1 (April 2026) - Lebanon

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  49. EU invites Taliban members to discuss Afghan migrant returns

    12 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. EU invites Taiban members to discuss Afghan migrant returns

    12 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

25 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL25 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 19.8

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 19.8

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

BPBP plc
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

FROFrontline plc
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

MPMP Materials Corp
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

SHELShell plc
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services
economic 22.3

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 16.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)