Egypt

Low
country·EGY·Score 9.6 1.1
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
0
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
0
INFInformation
27
HUMHumanitarian
2

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military0Diplomatic0Economic0Information26.57Humanitarian1.9

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr28 Apr5 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Al Murunah: Building Climate Resilience from the Ground Up with Scalable, Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions Pilot Projects in the MENA Region

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  2. Egypt: New Arrivals from Sudan as of 14 May 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. Govt source rules out imminent sale of military companies as IMF begins Egypt loan review

    20 May 2026·information·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  4. Sources: Govt considers ending in-kind bread subsidy in coming fiscal year

    13 May 2026·information·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  5. Misrata Free Zone discusses with international companies establishing Mud Plant within its zone

    11 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  6. Reforming the family: New custody rules uphold ‘equality in injustice’

    11 May 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Egypt: New Arrivals from Sudan as of 07 May 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. LBC meets Egyptian Business Association in Cairo – arrangements ongoing for large exhibition of Egyptian products to be held in Tripoli soon

    09 May 2026·information·Libya Herald
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  9. Cash-strapped Egyptians Zamalek eye record CAF Cup prize money

    08 May 2026·information·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  10. Al Murunah: From Pilot to Practice, Building Readiness for Adoption and Scaling of Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  11. UNHCR Egypt - Fact Sheet - May 2026

    07 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  12. Egypt - Monthly Operational Update - April 2026

    06 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  13. Egypt: ICRC, Al-Azhar University Emphasize Shared Principles Between IHL and Islamic Sharia

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Egypt allows ship with stolen Ukrainian grain to unload despite prosecutor's request – Sybiha

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. Future of Egypt authority push to consolidate monopoly over rice exports

    05 May 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. Future of Egypt authority push to consolidate monopoly over rice exports

    05 May 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Future of Egypt authority push to consolidate monopoly over rice exports

    05 May 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. Egypt: Registered Population (Refugees and Asylum Seekers) as of 30 April 2026 [EN/AR]

    05 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  19. Met Museum show at new Costume Institute puts fashion in same spotlight as Egyptian artefacts

    04 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  20. Egypt: Registered Population (Refugees and Asylum Seekers) as of 30 April 2026

    04 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  21. Service Satisfaction Survey 2025 for Child Protection in Egypt

    04 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  22. Kenya: Finally! Ruto Congratulates Kenyan Skater After Clinching Gold in African Championships

    04 May 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  23. Egypt: New Arrivals from Sudan as of 30 April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Family of six held by ICE arrives back in Colorado as lawyer attacks ‘kidnapping’

    02 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  25. Mohamed Salah ‘deserves big send-off’, says Liverpool boss Slot

    01 May 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. From debt we came, to debt we shall return: New borrowing makes up half of resources in govt’s draft budget

    30 Apr 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. Not a lack of cases, but a lack of will: Just 2 verdicts in over a decade of discrimination lawsuits

    30 Apr 2026·information·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  28. Egypt Vulnerability Assessment of Refugees (EVAR) 2025 - Summary

    30 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  29. Egypt Vulnerability Assessment of Refugees (EVAR) 2025

    30 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  30. Egypt Vulnerability Assessment of Refugees (EVAR) 2025 [AR]

    30 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  31. Egypt Flood 2025: DREF Operation Update (MDREG022)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  32. Quarterly Mixed Migration Update: Eastern and Southern Africa | Egypt and Yemen, Quarter 1 - 2026

    28 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  33. In landmark ruling, hotel manager sentenced for discrimination against women after refusing single-room booking

    27 Apr 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Nigeria: IATF2027 - Africans Return to Lagos 50 Years After

    27 Apr 2026·information·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  35. Enhanced Refugee Perceptions and Intentions Survey (ERPIS): IPW Weighting Methodology for Panel Attrition, WAVE 2 | Nov-Dec 2025 (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon)

    27 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  36. Egypt: New Arrivals from Sudan as of 23 April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. Will Yamal, Salah and Ekitike miss the World Cup 2026 due to injury?

    26 Apr 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Injured Salah has played his last game for Liverpool: Egypt team official

    26 Apr 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. Egyptian family of six taken back into ICE custody days after being released

    25 Apr 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  40. Kenya: Kenya's Kcb Volleyball Club Finishes Second At Continental Championship

    25 Apr 2026·military·AllAfrica — Pan-African News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Douma in new remand detention cycle as court rejects appeal

    23 Apr 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. The long and costly wait for a new personal status law

    23 Apr 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  43. Secretary-General Appoints Rania A. al-Mashat of Egypt Executive Secretary of Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

    21 Apr 2026·military·UN Security Council Press Releases
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Travel quiz: Grab your bags and see if you can beat our quiz

    21 Apr 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. Secretary-General Appoints Rania A. al-Mashat of Egypt Executive Secretary of Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

    21 Apr 2026·military·UN Security Council Press Releases
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. Egypt: New Arrivals from Sudan as of 16 April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  47. WFP Egypt Country Brief, April 2026 (Reporting Period: March 2026)

    21 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  48. Court extends Activist Ahmed Douma’s remand detention

    19 Apr 2026·military·Mada Masr — Egypt
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Egypt: Registered Population (Refugees and Asylum Seekers) as of 31 March 2026 [AR]

    19 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  50. Egypt: Registered Population (Refugees and Asylum Seekers) as of 28 February 2026 [EN/AR]

    19 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement

Market Signal Indicators

26 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY1 instrument
EGPTVanEck Egypt Index ETF (Egyptian Exchange / EGX 30)
composite 9.6

Egypt composite threat score below 25 (Low) — regional calm reduces risk premium on Egyptian equities; consider EGPT exposure.

market/national_equity_buy_egy_v1

SELL25 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 9.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 9.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

BPBP plc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

FROFrontline plc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

MPMP Materials Corp
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

SHELShell plc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)