Iraq

Low
country·IRQ·Score 7.5 0.2
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
1
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
31
INFInformation
11
HUMHumanitarian
3

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military1.47Diplomatic0Economic31.42Information10.93Humanitarian2.86

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr28 Apr6 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Erbil Tripartite Social Dialogue meeting discusses impact of the financial situation and regional crisis on the labour market in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq [EN/AR]

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. Iraq: Update on Cross-border Mobility and Internal Displacement in Iraq (11 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  3. Riyadh 17 May 2026 #1

    20 May 2026·military·International Crisis Group (ICG)
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  4. Iraq 17 May 2026 #1

    20 May 2026·military·International Crisis Group (ICG)
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Zaidi takes power, Khudair confirmed as oil minister

    20 May 2026·military·Iraq Oil Report — Energy Economy and Oil Sector
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. En visite en Irak, la présidente du CICR appelle à un engagement international soutenu pour éviter une nouvelle escalade militaire au Moyen-Orient

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  7. One Million Iraqis Register to Attend Khamenei’s Funeral

    12 May 2026·military·IranWire — Iran
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  8. After the Raj, the most powerful weapon in Pakistan's arsenal is a name

    12 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  9. After the Raj, the most powerful weapon in Pakistan's arsenal is a name

    12 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  10. After the Raj, the most powerful weapon in Pakistan's arsenal is a name

    12 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  11. After the Raj, the most powerful weapon in Pakistan's arsenal is a name

    12 May 2026·military·Dawn — Pakistan
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  12. ICRC president calls for sustained international engagement to prevent further military escalation in the Middle East during visit to Iraq [EN/AR]

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  13. La presidenta del CICR estuvo en Irak y llamó a realizar acciones internacionales continuas para evitar una mayor escalada militar en Oriente Medio

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  14. ICRC president calls for sustained international engagement to prevent further military escalation in the Middle East during visit to Iraq

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. Iraq drops out of Thai rice market due to Hormuz blockage

    11 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. Academic Conference in Baghdad Advances Legal Dialogue to Protect Girls, Strengthen Family Legal Frameworks in Iraq [EN/AR]

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  17. Iraq: ICRC president to meet senior officials, discuss humanitarian engagement on two-day visit

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. Iraq: ICRC president to meet senior officials, discuss humanitarian engagement on two-day visit

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. U.S. sanctions Maarij, escalating pressure over next Iraqi Cabinet

    08 May 2026·diplomatic·Iraq Oil Report — Energy Economy and Oil Sector
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  20. Iraq — Update on Cross-border Mobility and Internal Displacement in Iraq (04 May 2026)

    08 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  21. Iraq — Update on Cross-border Mobility and Internal Displacement in Iraq (20 April 2026)

    07 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  22. Iraq — Update on Cross-border Mobility and Internal Displacement in Iraq (27 April 2026)

    07 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  23. Ancient Ziggurat of Ur restored in Iraq using traditional methods

    07 May 2026·information·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  24. Pipeline delays cap Iraq’s northern exports

    06 May 2026·military·Iraq Oil Report — Energy Economy and Oil Sector
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  25. Iraq’s Continuing Struggle for Sovereignty

    06 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. Uncertainty looms as last oil tanker from Middle East arrives in California

    06 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  27. Uncertainty looms as last oil tanker from Middle East heads to California

    06 May 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  28. Iraq’s Continuing Struggle for Sovereignty

    06 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. 'No pilgrims': Regional war hushes Iraq's worship tourism

    05 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. Iraqi oil exports stagnate at two-decade lows as wartime restrictions persist

    05 May 2026·military·Iraq Oil Report — Energy Economy and Oil Sector
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. Agriculture & Food Security in Iraq: Impact of Regional Developments - Information Note (April 2026)

    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  32. Iraq Launches 3rd Voluntary National Review on Migration, Ahead of IMRF 2026 [EN/AR/KU]

    03 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  33. WFP Iraq Country Brief, April 2026 (Reporting Period: February and March 2026)

    03 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  34. Trump congratulates Iraq's al-Zaidi after Maliki bid collapses

    01 May 2026·diplomatic·Intellinews
    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  35. Statement by the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. Summer crisis looms as wartime disruptions hit Iraq’s power sector

    30 Apr 2026·military·Iraq Oil Report — Energy Economy and Oil Sector
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. 'Attacked 28 times in a day' - BBC visits heavily targeted US-UK base in Iraq

    30 Apr 2026·military·BBC World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. Rains revive Iraq’s wetlands after years of drought

    29 Apr 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. Iraq's Protection Pathway - A Guide to Service Providers and Protection Capacity for Victims of Human Trafficking

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  40. Who is Ali al-Zaidi, the businessman named as Iraq’s PM-designate?

    28 Apr 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Iraq appoints new prime minister-designate

    28 Apr 2026·military·Al Jazeera English — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. Iraq’s president asks PM-designate Ali al-Zaidi to form government

    28 Apr 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  43. Ali al-Zaidi nominated for Iraqi premiership

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. Iraq’s president ask PM-designate Ali al-Zaidi to form government

    27 Apr 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. Update on Internal Displacement in Iraq (As of March 2026)

    27 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  46. UNHCR Iraq Monthly Update, March 2026

    27 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  47. Buried Wars: Landmines Shatter Iraq’s Childhood Dreams [EN/AR]

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  48. Buried Wars: Landmines Shatter Iraq’s Childhood Dreams

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Iraq — Cross-border Monitoring Report — Protection Risks and Concerns among Travellers Crossing for Work (December 2025 - February 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. Iraq — Update on Cross-border Mobility and Internal Displacement in Iraq (06 April 2026)

    22 Apr 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement

Market Signal Indicators

14 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 7.5

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 7.5

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 1.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)