Myanmar

Low
country·MMR·Score 12.6 2.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
8
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
27
INFInformation
27
HUMHumanitarian
5

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military8.48Diplomatic0Economic26.55Information26.6Humanitarian5.34

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr26 Apr1 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Sexual Violence Against Rohingya Women and Girls: Emerging patterns of abuse in Arakan Army-controlled areas of Rakhine State

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  2. Spillover Effects: How the Middle East crisis threatens food security - Focus on Myanmar

    Low
    economic/supply_chain
  3. Myanmar Crisis Situation Analysis (Period: 04/05/26 - 10/05/26)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  4. Attacks on Health Care in Myanmar: 29 April-12 May 2026

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  5. Myanmar - Earthquake (GDACS, USGS, media) (ECHO Daily Flash of 18 May 2026)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  6. Middle East crisis deepens hunger in Myanmar; EU responds with EUR 8 million for urgent relief | World Food Programme

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  7. Hpa-an District Short Update: Burma Army air strikes and shelling caused damage and displacement in T’Nay Hsah Township (September to December 2025)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  8. Myanmar’s resource curse fueling its forever war

    20 May 2026·military·Asia Times
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  9. Myanmar’s Junta Cries Foul as Kim Aris Pleads For Proof His Mother Is Alive

    20 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  10. Burned, beaten, and hunted: Myanmar worker survives alleged torture in Thailand

    Moderate
    humanitarian/civilian_violence
  11. Myanmar resistance forces capture police station in Sagaing’s Depayin Township

    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  12. Myanmar junta intensifies attacks along Chin-Magway border

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  13. Buddhist abbot detained, beaten for defying Myanmar junta ally in Kachin State

    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  14. Rival resistance forces launch joint attacks to repel junta advance in Magway

    Moderate
    military/troop_movement
  15. Clashes flare as Myanmar military attempts to break AA blockade in Kyaukphyu

    Moderate
    economic/disruption
  16. Chin resistance braces for Myanmar junta offensive as Mindat hit by airstrikes

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  17. Spillover Effects: How the Middle East crisis threatens food security - Focus on Myanmar

    Low
    economic/supply_chain
  18. Spillover Effects: How the Middle East crisis threatens food security Focus on Myanmar

    Low
    economic/supply_chain
  19. UNHCR Regional Bureau for Asia and Pacific: Myanmar Situation Update (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand) January - March 2026

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  20. Myanmar Landmine and Explosive Ordnance Incidents Information Factsheet (January-December 2025) [EN/MY]

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  21. One year after deadly school attack, Myanmar children continue to be the victims of the military’s air campaign [EN/MY]

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  22. 2-Kilogram Ruby Unearthed in Myanmar’s Mogok Mining Town

    12 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. Ethnic Groups Are Fleeing Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts in Search of Safety in Myanmar

    12 May 2026·humanitarian·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  24. Myanmar Crisis Situation Analysis (Period: 27/04/26 - 03/05/26)

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  25. 2 Kilogram of Ruby Unearthed in Myanmar’s Mogok Mining Town

    12 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. Myanmar military intensifies pressure on resistance strongholds southwest of Mandalay

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. One year after deadly school attack, Myanmar children continue to be the victims of the military’s air campaign

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  28. Words that dehumanise: The language behind anti-Rohingya hatred in Myanmar

    Moderate
    information/operation
  29. Words that dehumanise: The language behind anti-Rohingya hatred in Myanmar

    Moderate
    information/operation
  30. Still excluded, Myanmar regime blasts ‘discriminatory’ treatment by ASEAN

    Moderate
    military/explosion
  31. Aung San Suu Kyi’s Move to House Arrest Is a Calculated Deception

    11 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. Myanmar junta blocks China border trade routes controlled by MNDAA

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  33. Tiny shifts seen in divided ASEAN’s approach to Myanmar

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Massive ruby found in Myanmar, where gem mining has links to junta

    09 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  35. Massive ruby found in Myanmar but gem mining has links to junta

    09 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. 'Is she still alive?' Aung San Suu Kyi's son in anguish

    08 May 2026·military·ABC Australia — World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  37. Why Aung San Suu Kyi's son did not celebrate her move to house arrest

    08 May 2026·information·ABC Australia — World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  38. The Revolution in Bago: A Crucial Battle for Myanmar’s Future

    08 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  39. Attacks on Health Care in Myanmar: 15 - 28 April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. Inside TikTok's prostitution recruitment networks

    08 May 2026·military·France 24 English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Family accuses Myanmar resistance fighters of killing civilian in Bago Region

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. Trump ally Roger Stone condemned for providing lobbying services to Myanmar’s military junta

    08 May 2026·diplomatic·The Guardian World News
    Low
    diplomatic/threat
  43. UN envoy on Myanmar quits as head of top Australian university

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  44. ASEAN looks inwards as Mideast crisis hits home

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  45. ASEAN looks inwards as Mideast crisis hits home

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  46. Trump-ally Roger Stone condemned for providing lobbying services to Myanmar’s military junta

    08 May 2026·diplomatic·The Guardian World News
    Low
    diplomatic/threat
  47. Philippines Urges Myanmar to Grant ASEAN Special Envoy Access to Aung San Suu Kyi

    07 May 2026·military·The Diplomat
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  48. Myanmar dissidents in Thailand face growing difficulty getting passports

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  49. Former FMs, UN experts urge recognition of Myanmar’s ousted president

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  50. Myanmar Emergency Overview Map - Number of people displaced since Feb 2021 and remain displaced (as of 04 May 2026)

    07 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement

Market Signal Indicators

14 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 12.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 12.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 8.5

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)