Poland

Low
country·POL·Score 3.1→ 0.0
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
0
DIPDiplomatic
0
ECOEconomic
0
INFInformation
6
HUMHumanitarian
2

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military0Diplomatic0Economic0Information5.88Humanitarian1.84

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510022 Apr29 Apr9 May

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Hungary's new Prime Minister Magyar seeks to fix Poland ties

    20 May 2026·military·Deutsche Welle English
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  2. Poland: High level briefing on IHL for the Polish ministries

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  3. Poland: Stop cooperating with ICE on unlawful returns of Ukrainians

    13 May 2026·information·Amnesty International
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  4. Poland’s Niewiadów PGM seeks to build European defence champion with new capital raise

    13 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  5. Poland becomes first nation to sign EU SAFE loans, expects billions for defense

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  6. Fugitive former Polish justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro spotted in the US

    12 May 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  7. Poland says it expects US to extradite ex-minister who fled from Hungary

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  8. Poland says its expects US to extradite ex-minister who fled from Hungary

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  9. Poland says its expects US to extradite ex-minister who fled from Hungary

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  10. Poland investigating how ex-minister wanted for alleged crimes fled from Hungary to US

    11 May 2026·humanitarian·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  11. Polanski accuses Times of ‘scraping the barrel’ over his claim to be charity spokesperson – UK politics live

    06 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  12. Polanski accuses Times of ‘scraping the barrel’ over his claim to be charity spokesperson – UK politics live

    06 May 2026·information·The Guardian World News
    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  13. US father and daughter admit selling fake Picasso and Banksy works, duping art world

    30 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  14. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – as it happened

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  16. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed from prison in Belarus in US-brokered swap deal

    28 Apr 2026·diplomatic·The Guardian World News
    Low
    diplomatic/threat
  19. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed from prison in Belarus in US-brokered swap deal

    28 Apr 2026·diplomatic·The Guardian World News
    Low
    diplomatic/threat
  20. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  21. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  22. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  23. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  25. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of US-brokered Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  26. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of reported Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  27. Journalist Andrzej Poczobut freed as part of reported Polish-Belarusian prisoner swap – Europe live

    28 Apr 2026·military·The Guardian World News
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  28. Poland's population set to fall by 31.6% by 2100, Eurostat says

    28 Apr 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  29. Ukrainian-Polish Historians’ Congress seen as step toward historical reconciliation

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  30. Amazon to invest over €5.4bn in Poland by 2028

    23 Apr 2026·military·Intellinews
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. Poland does not rule out delays in delivery of weapons purchased from U.S.

    Low
    unknown/unmapped

Market Signal Indicators

26 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY1 instrument
EPOLiShares MSCI Poland ETF (Warsaw Stock Exchange / WIG20)
composite 3.1

Poland composite threat score below 25 (Low) — NATO eastern-flank calm reduces geopolitical risk premium on Polish equities; consider EPOL exposure.

market/national_equity_buy_pol_v1

SELL25 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 3.1

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 3.1

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

BPBP plc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

CVXChevron Corp
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

FROFrontline plc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

MPMP Materials Corp
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

REMXVanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — supply-chain normalisation reduces critical mineral scarcity premium; REMX and MP may de-rate.

market/critical_minerals_sell_v1

SHELShell plc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

STNGScorpio Tankers Inc
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

TTETotalEnergies SE
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

XOMExxonMobil Corp
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — geopolitical supply-side risk premium unwinding; energy stocks that outperformed during elevated tension periods may face de-rating as conflict-driven price support recedes.

market/energy_stocks_sell_v1

ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services
economic 0.0

Economic threat score below 25 (Low) — shipping lane normalisation compresses freight rate premium; tanker operators that re-rated on disruption may mean-revert.

market/shipping_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 0.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)