Syria

Low
country·SYR·Score 24.6 0.9
Analyst Review
7-day trend:→ 0.0·Engine 1.0.0·Rule hash d1e53fb0

Dimension Scores

Rule-based per-dimension breakdown

MILMilitary
14
DIPDiplomatic
28
ECOEconomic
28
INFInformation
70
HUMHumanitarian
19

Dimension Radar

Relative weight of each analytical dimension

255075Military14Diplomatic27.6Economic28.24Information70Humanitarian18.87

Score Trend

30-day composite score history — hover for details

025507510019 Apr24 Apr29 Apr

Top Indicators

Highest-contributing signals by weight × decay

humanitarian displacement
41.2
diplomatic withdrawal
38.4
information operations
37.7
cyber intrusion
33.1
troop mobilisation
30.2
diplomatic rhetoric
28.8
sanctions pressure
28.5
trade disruption
26.1

Contribution = signal weight × decayed value. Source: rule engine trace.

Evidence Timeline

Source events that contributed to this score

  1. Extensive shooting | Two young men of Bedouin tribes injured on borders between Daraa and Al-Suwaidaa

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  2. Ongoing uprising | Protests erupt demanding the reveal of fates of missing people in Al-Suwaidaa

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  3. Syrian Arab Republic — Population Mobility and Baseline Assessment — Round 15 (01 - 30 April 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  4. Mr. Tom Fletcher, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator – Briefing to the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria, 15 May 2026

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  5. Deputy Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Syria, Claudio Cordone - Briefing to the Security Council (15 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/civilian_violence
  6. Supporting agricultural recovery in Syria (Deir ez-Zor)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  7. Syrian Arab Republic: Comprehensive Overview of IDPs and IDP Returns Dashboard (As of 23 April 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  8. WFP Syria Monthly Market Price Bulletin, March 2026 - Issue 135

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  9. Comprehensive Overview of IDPs and IDP Returns Dashboard (14/5/2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  10. Syria: Israel’s deliberate destruction of civilian homes in Quneitra must be investigated as war crimes

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  11. Syrian Arab Republic - Emergency Mobility Tracking and Cross Border Monitoring Situation Update - Round 11 (18 May 2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  12. UNMAS and FAO welcome generous funding from the People of Japan to restore agricultural livelihoods in conflict-affected areas in Syria [EN/AR]

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  13. Comprehensive Overview of Refugee Returns Dashboard (14/5/2026)

    20 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  14. Syria Logistics Sector Meeting Minutes, Damascus, 30 April 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  15. Syria - Damascus Governorate - Damascus City and Surrounding - Roads Network Map (06/02/2026)

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  16. Al-Sharaa’s shakeup: A merit-based state, or a circle of trust?

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  17. The UAE’s Syrian Gambit

    20 May 2026·military·Foreign Policy
    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  18. Chart: Annual Inflation in Syria (2022-2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  19. Central Banker Dismissal Highlights Tensions Over Monetary Policies and Governance

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  20. Syria Introduces New Customs Law, Modernising Administration and Strengthening Anti-Smuggling Operations

    Moderate
    military/armed_clash
  21. Rising Fuel Prices Deepen Syria’s Cost of Living Crisis

    Low
    economic/energy_disruption
  22. Profile: Industrial Cities and Industrial Zones

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  23. Presidential Decree No. 109 of 2026 Introducing a New Customs Law

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  24. May 20, 2026 – Our Press Selection (26 reports, papers, and articles published over the past week on Syria)

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  25. Decisions by the E.U. Removing Sanctions on Ministries of Interior and Defence

    Moderate
    economic/sanction
  26. New batch | Hundreds of families displaced from Afrin arrive from Kobani

    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  27. Education protest | Ariqah students reject transfer of exam centres outside Al-Suwaidaa

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  28. Security anticipation | Extensive mobilization of “General Security” in Al-Hasakah countryside amid calls for protesting

    Low
    diplomatic/protest
  29. Justifying regime policies and branding critics as traitors | How media flattery impacts Syrians

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  30. Without official explanation | Member of Al-Hasakah Council of Elders dies inside prison of caretaker government

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  31. Movement of armed group | Primitive oil refineries withdrawn from Al-Rasafa area

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  32. Old ordnance | Two children injured in explosion of cluster grenade in Daraa

    Moderate
    military/explosion
  33. Health Sector 4W Infographic National Coordinated Response - Jan-March 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  34. Syria: Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Snapshot National Coordinated Response Q1.2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  35. Syria: Referral Pathway Snapshot - National Coordinated Response Q1 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  36. WFP scales back food assistance in Syria amid funding shortfalls

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  37. Syrian Development Fund Key Figures (Q1 – 2026)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  38. May 13, 2026 – Our Press Selection (42 reports, papers, and articles published over the past week on Syria)

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  39. Health Sector 4Ws Infographic - Jan -March 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  40. Health Sector - Referral pathway_Q1 2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  41. Health Sector - Reconstruction & Rehabilitation_Q1.2026

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  42. In Focus: Business Community in Lattakia and Tartous Navigates Post-Assad Syria

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  43. In Focus: Business Community in Lattakia and Tartous Navigates Post-Assad Syria

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  44. Structure and Assets of the Syrian Sovereign Fund Revealed During Emirati Forum

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  45. Syrian Arab Republic - Emergency Mobility Tracking and Cross Border Monitoring Situation Update - Round 10 (11 May 2026)

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  46. Syrian Arab Republic Flood 2026 - DREF Operation Update (MDRSY018)

    13 May 2026·humanitarian·ReliefWeb Humanitarian Reports (UN OCHA)
    Moderate
    humanitarian/refugee_movement
  47. Syria’s First Post-Assad Government Reshuffle Falls Short of Expectations

    Low
    unknown/unmapped
  48. In Focus: Business Community in Lattakia and Tartous Navigates Post-Assad Syria

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  49. Structure and Assets of the Syrian Sovereign Fund Revealed During Emirati Forum

    Moderate
    cyber/incident
  50. EU Reinstates Cooperation Agreement with Syria

    Moderate
    cyber/incident

Market Signal Indicators

17 analytical signals · derived from current threat score

⚠ Analytical purposes only — not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before trading.

BUY3 instruments
CIBRFirst Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

HACKETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

PANWPalo Alto Networks Inc
information 70.0

Information operations score above 65 — significant cyber or disinformation activity detected; cybersecurity sector demand historically rises in these periods.

market/cyber_buy_v1

SELL14 instruments
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF
composite 24.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
composite 24.6

Composite threat score below 25 (Low range) — geopolitical calm; safe-haven premium may compress as risk-on appetite returns.

market/safe_haven_sell_v1

ASMLASML Holding NV (NASDAQ-listed)
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

GDGeneral Dynamics Corp
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LHXL3Harris Technologies Inc
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

LMTLockheed Martin Corp
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

RTXRTX Corporation
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC ADR)
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low) — cross-strait and peninsula calm reduces geopolitical risk premium in semiconductor valuations; supply-chain disruption fears recede.

market/semiconductor_sell_v1

XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
military 14.0

Military threat score below 25 (Low range) — de-escalation signals; defense sector premium may compress as conflict-related demand subsides.

market/defense_sell_v1

Score Explanation

Engine 1.0.0 · Rule hash a3f8c2d1 · Sun, 22 Mar 2026 06:00:00 GMT

Reconstruction Check

military: 29.470diplomatic: 17.025economic: 11.060information: 7.180humanitarian: 6.240

Σ contributions = 70.975(reported composite: 72.5)